Illawarra Stormchasers

Illawarra Stormchasers We don’t pretend to be professional meteorologists — our forecasts aren’t perfect, because weather isn’t perfect.

Illawarra Stormchasers is your local, community-first weather hub — born from a love of chasing storms, but now dedicated to helping people across the Illawarra stay informed, prepared, and safe. But with years of storm-watching experience, deep local insight, and a real passion for what we do, we combine model data, radar, and what we see in the sky to give you a grounded, honest take on what mig

ht happen over the next 24–72 hours. From Nowra up to Wollongong, and across to the Southern Highlands, Eurobodalla, Far South Coast, and Sydney Basin — our team keeps watch on it all. And when we’re out storm chasing, we’ll bring you real-time updates, photos, and explanations, so you can see what we see — wherever we are. We’re proud to offer this premium-level service for free. Whether you’re here for the awe of a lightning storm or keeping an eye on potentially dangerous weather, our goal is to build a knowledgeable, resilient community. Thanks for reading, sharing, and being part of the journey.
— Simon & The Illawarra Stormchasers Team

07/09/2026

Weather Outlook, Illawarra and Southern Tablelands, Tuesday 8th September 2026.

As we predicted last night a quite heavy shower passing through Shellharbour ATM (5:15pm). Must be close to a rumble, but nothing on lightning tracker. Only a narrow rain band, but lighter showers likely until around midnight. Tomorrow a mix of sun and cloud with a 50/50 chance of a shower. Fresh SW winds in morning, lighter SE in afternoon. Back to winter at 17-18C. HIGHLANDS: Shower or two next few hours. Tomorrow a mix of cloud and sun. Remote chance of a shower in North and East. SW to SE winds and 13-14C.

06/09/2026

Weather Outlook, Illawarra and Southern Tablelands, Monday 7th September 2026.

A cooler week ahead and even extra blanket territory from Tuesday night for 3-4 nights, but by next weekend weather should be back to normal for September. Tomorrow, a mix of sun and cloud. A quite vigorous southerly change will develop in the Southern Illawarra (south of Nowra) mid afternoon and progress through rest of Illawarra by late afternoon/early evening. A few showers to follow, one or two could be briefly heavy. Although instability is very low there may be enough forcing in the Southerly change to prod 'Thor' to spare one rumble. Winds light and variable most of morning, but the southerly in late afternoon will be strong right on the coastal strip. 21-22C. HIGHLANDS: Mix of sun and cloud morning with west winds. Winds turning light to moderate Southerly towards evening when some brief showers are also possible. 16-17C.

THUNDERSTORM FEATURES - Part 8 - Shelf Cloud A shelf cloud a horizontal cloud on the forward outflow front of a thunders...
06/09/2026

THUNDERSTORM FEATURES - Part 8 - Shelf Cloud

A shelf cloud a horizontal cloud on the forward outflow front of a thunderstorm, usually a linear type storm. Technically they are 'Arcus' clouds.

They look impressive and can span across the entire horizon. However for a storm chaser they are sometimes a 'one shot' at getting impressive images, or constantly having to reposition to stay ahead of the storm. Lightning is also embedded in the rain well behind the shelf, not ideal for lightning video or images.

On two separate occasions I have chased a linear shelf cloud system from West Wyalong to Moss Vale. In both I had to keep pushing forward to stay ahead. Both storm systems ironically peaked in severity around Young - Grenfell after a bit of upsloping when moving onto the slopes from the plains. In both I was overtaken by the linear systems while on the Boorowa to Yass road, which takes a southerly direction, allowing the east moving storm to overtake me. However in both the more eastward Hume Hwy from Yass to Goulburn saw me back out in front again.

The images below were taken at Grenfell and show some multilayer shelf cloud features.

05/09/2026

Weather Outlook, Illawarra and Southern Tablelands, Sunday 6th September 2026.

Show, if there was one is over for the coast, apart from gusty west winds overnight. Short period of NW wind between NE winds and cooler westerlies today allowed 30C to be reached briefly. Much cooler this evening. Tomorrow a sunny day. Fresh to perhaps borderline strong SW winds in morning turning moderate southerly in afternoon. 21-22C. HIGHLANDS: Slim chance of a fast moving shower this evening, mainly in west and south of region. Strong W to SW winds overnight and early Sunday. Sunday: Mostly sunny in east. Part sun and cloud in far west, but dry. SW winds slowly moderating. 16-17C.

04/09/2026

Weather Outlook, Illawarra and Southern Tablelands, Saturday 5th September 2026.

Sunny morning with N/NE winds. A fast moving cold front due middle of afternoon will turn winds to the NW and these winds may be strong to even briefly gale force. A band of cloud will accompany the front and may give 1-2mm of precious rain at most, not enough to be useful and actually rain evaporating in the dry air will just increase any wind gusts. Winds shifting W/SW later in evening. Temperature depends on how long the sun can remain before that cloud band and if enough hot NW wind can precede the cloud and West wind, a bit of a lottery so giving a 28-30C range. Sunday pleasant enough, but next week our old friend "My Big Fat HIGH" pressure system will be back giving 4-5 days of benign cooler days with the 'chance' of a couple of mm on any day, but also the chance of zero love. HIGHLANDS: Sunny morning. Winds ramping up mid to late morning from the NW and becoming cloudy.Winds may reach gale force. A band of rain will accompany the front mid afternoon. West of region may get 3-4mm, but only 1-2mm in east. 23-24C, but feeling much cooler by late evening.

THUNDERSTORM FEATURES - Part 7 - MammatusIf there is one single thunderstorm feature that is consistently called as a 's...
04/09/2026

THUNDERSTORM FEATURES - Part 7 - Mammatus

If there is one single thunderstorm feature that is consistently called as a 'severe' sign when in fact it is mostly NOT, it is mammatus. This is not to say mammatus in its right context can be a severe sign. Those contexts in my opinion are if the mammatus is at the rear of a retreating storm, or associated disorganised high lingering anvil junk, or on the forward anvil of an approaching storm. From a chaser perspective I get interested in the latter.

Mammatus are most often associated with anvil clouds and look like bubbles on the underside of the anvil. They are descending pockets of air. Even non-severe mammatus is a sig for pilots to stay away as they may lead to local wind shear.

In the Condobolin image the mammatus here is associated with storms that have progressed well away from the immediate area. Very photogenic, but time to pack up and reposition, or even call it a day.

Compare this to the mammatus in the Spring Ridge LP Supercell attached. This mammatus was on the forward anvil of an approaching storm and was telling me that a vigorous updraft was to my west and upper dynamics were supporting severe storms. The LP Supercell moved SE into better moisture and led to very heavy rain, but sadly also moved into the Coolah Tops area of the Liverpool Ranges with no real chaseable roads options.

Although looking apocalyptic the mammatus on the Windellama storm attached is associated with a dying storm, the storm had given large hail near Braidwood, but now was spent.

03/09/2026

Weather Outlook, Illawarra and Southern Tablelands, Friday 4th September 2026.

Winds slowly abating tonight. Tomorrow: Sunny. SW winds in morning, becoming lighter SE to NE from late morning. Usual Spring range in temperature from coast side to inland. Expect 20-21C coast, grading to 22C at Albion Park, Dapto and Nowra. Much warmer, but very strong NW winds on Saturday. HIGHLANDS: Wind slowly abating tonight. Sunny tomorrow. Light to moderate west winds tomorrow. 18-19C.

THUNDERSTORM FEATURES - Part 6 - Back Sheared Anvil (RFD)CARE: This is probably one of the harder features to assess in ...
02/09/2026

THUNDERSTORM FEATURES - Part 6 - Back Sheared Anvil (RFD)

CARE: This is probably one of the harder features to assess in proper context and should only be called by someone knowledge with thunderstorms

The 5/5 rating is for true back shearing which is where an updraft is strong enough to push back against jet stream winds. You need to look for thickness in the back shear and proximity to the storm core.

Misleading back sheared anvils are very common and are the persisting anvil cloud at the rear of storm where the storm core has moved away. The anvil never back sheared, but simply left lingering behind. In other cases the mid level winds may also be stronger then jet stream winds, resulting in same anvil being left behind.

02/09/2026

Weather Outlook, Illawarra and Southern Tablelands, Thursday 3rd September 2026.

There is a very slight chance of a 10 drop shower coming from the west in the pre-dawn hours of tomorrow morning. Any cloud in morning will clear to a mostly sunny day. W/NW winds will increase from mid morning and could be strong at times around middle of day. No BOM wind warnings, but being Illawarra it will be a watch point. Warm still at around 23-24C. HIGHLANDS: Chance of a quick passing shower or two in morning, mainly in west of region. Mix of sun and cloud day, more cloud in west. Windy with NW to W winds, strong at times and maybe gales on west exposed slopes. Cooler, but quite seasonable at 17-18C.

01/09/2026

Weather Outlook, Illawarra and Southern Tablelands, Wednesday 2nd September 2026.

Albion Park made 27C today and is likely to achieve similar tomorrow. NW winds in morning. Winds may shift N/NE at times in afternoon, but only within 1-2kms of coast, but overall the NW should win out and 26-27C is likely for all apart from the crabs on the rocks at low tide at Bellambi Point (ridiculous weather station location). HIGHLANDS: Mostly sunny day. Moderate to fresh NW winds, perhaps strengthening to strong in west in afternoon. 20-21C.

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Shellharbour, NSW
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