M3 -Manish Money Market

M3 -Manish Money Market Manish Financial is financial organization founded by professionals with decade of experience in financial markets, equities, wealth and private finance.

Disclaimer : Though, the organization use financial data which are available through companies official website, documents and officials, users are advised to use the data for the purpose of information only and rely on their own judgment while making investment decisions. The investments discussed or recommended may not be suitable for all investors on a holistic approach and Manish Financial, su

bsidaries or associates should not be held liable for any timeliness, accuracy or quality of the content.

16/12/2015

16-DEC-2015

FII EQ: -503.22
DII EQ: +1024.03
FII FO: +1260.16

IND FUT: +91.76
IND OPT: +778.98
STK FUT: +536.62
STK OPT: -147.20

16/12/2015

RAKESH JHUNJHUNWALA ON ET NOW
MARKET OUTLOOK
- Fully invested in markets right now
- Markets have neared the bottom
- Flow of foreign money into markets will be lesser than local money
- Believe we are in a big bull market
- Mother of all bull markets is ahead of us
- Benefit to India far greater than sovereign fund impact
- India poised to have best macros among EMs in 2016
- Low commodity prices benefit India to a large extent
- Equities can give a return of 15% post tax vs 6% return from debt
- Liquidity, price discovery found in equities will appeal to investors
- Bullish on markets in medium & long term

RAKESH JHUNJHUNWALA
GLOBAL MKT OUTLOOK
- Dollar has peaked & is good to short against other currencies
- Fed hike has already been factored in
- Joker in the pack is uncertainty in US credit markets
- Commodities & interest rate not related to each other
- ECB & Japan won't increase quantitative easing
- ECB & Japan have done $60bn of quantitative easing so far
- Global scenario continues to be negative

RAKESH JHUNJHUNWALA
EARNINGS VIEW
- Sub-par monsoon led to slowdown in earnings
- Markets kept a very high expectation level from earnings
- Q3 will be good a quarter for all except software companies
- Expect earnings recovery from next year
- Dip in commodity earnings will not be carried forward next year

RAKESH JHUNJHUNWALA
BANKING SECTOR CALL
- India's banking crisis is going to come to the fore
- The worst for banks may be seen only by March or June
- Don't touch banks until they open their books
- Banks can adjust to a measurable pace of change in technology, environment
- All PSBs may not be able to adjust to disruption in banking space
- Don't anticipate any problems with HDFC Bank, Kotak Mah Bank

RAKESH JHUNJHUNWALA
SECTORAL BETS
- No singular investment in defence sector
- Optimistic about pharma investments & industry
- Not worried about Lupin's capital allocation decisions
- Aurobindo Pharma is a very good long-term story
- Fall in input costs not a reason for bullishness on airlines
- Have a sizeable investment in IndiGo
- Most important segment for Tata Motors is JLR, followed by Indian LCV market
- Bharti Airtel hit by anticipation of competition
- Problems with L&T include BOT projects, Hyderabad metro, Middle East projects
- Titan's fortunes linked to urban consumption
- Brazil drought compounded agrochem issues as India is largest exporter
- Not worried about investment in MCX
- Believe profitability of housing finance companies will grow

RAKESH JHUNJHUNWALA
MACROECO VIEW
- Investment cycle will pick up with pick-up in consumption
- Entire economy will benefit with Govt reforms

08/12/2015

8-Dec: Prov Cash: Rs.crs:
FIIs: -518.46 (3109.43-3627.89)
DIIs: +590.32 (1577.24-986.92)

02/12/2015

The International Monetary Fund on Monday, as expected, admitted China's yuan into its benchmark currency basket

The currency will have a 10.92 percent share, in line with expectations, after a review of the weightings formula for the SDR, which determines which currencies countries can receive as part of IMF loans.

Currency analysts estimate the IMF seal of approval could fuel demand worth more than $500 billion in coming years and take the yuan's share of global reserve holdings to around 5 percent, overtaking the Canadian and Australian dollars.

20/11/2015

Justice Mr. A K Mathur submitted the 7th Pay Commission report to the Finance Minister :

~Highlights ~

1) In percentage terms the overall increase in pay & allowances and pension will be 23.55 %.

2) Within this the increase in pay will be 16% , increase in allowances will be 63% and increase in pension would be 24%.

3) The total financial impact in the FY 2016-17 is likely to be Rs 1,02,100 crore , over the expenditure as per the business as usual scenario

4) Max pay is recommended as Rs 2,25,000 per month for Apex scale and Rs 250000 per month for Cabinet Secretary and others at the same level.

5) Total impact are expected to entail an increase of 0.65% points in the ratio of expenditure on to GDP compared to 0.77 % in case of 6 PC

7) The minimum pay in govt is recommended to be set at Rs 18000 per month

8) Many steps recommended to improve NPS system

9) Commsion recommends abolish of 52 allwances altogether

10)Rate of annual increment to be retained at 3%

20/11/2015

Ø African banks to buy 22% stake in CARE Mauritius arm

Ø Hero MotoCorp settles up 1% on bumper sales

Ø Commodites may see sharp drop: Goldman Sachs

Ø Govt relaxes requirements in annual returns form under Cos Act

Ø Sugar production up 33% at 7.61 lakh tonnes so far this season



Ø CEA-led panel may suggest GST rate of 20-24%

Ø RBI says investors will need approval to buy 5% in banks

Ø Vedanta may scale back expansion on soft aluminium prices

Ø Jaitley vows corruption-free governance, reasonable tax rates

Ø Punj Lloyd bags two orders worth Rs 483 cr from NTPC

Ø BoA-Merrill Lynch survey downgrades India rating for global investors

Ø ECB lowers emergency funding cap for Greek banks to €85.7 bn

Ø Central Govt employees protest ‘anti-labour’ policies

Ø Centre committed to all round development of Telangana: Dattatreya

Ø BOJ keeps policy steady even as Japan slides into recession

Ø Religare exits mutual fund biz, sells out to partner Invesco



Ø Lundin Law PC begins probe against Dr Reddy’s, stock dips 7%

Ø Coal has solved India’s energy problems, but at great cost, says report

Ø Delhi HC asks govt to probe 21 e-commerce websites for FDI law violations

Ø Square raises $243 million in IPO, pricing shares below market range

Ø LG Electronics to develop own mobile payment system

Ø Productivity gains of Net can transform India

Ø HDFC may be 1st Indian company to issue masala bonds, set to raise $750 million

Ø 7th Pay Comm. may propose 23 % salary hike for govt staff

Ø Sensex ends 359 points up at 25,842, Nifty settles at 7,842; Sun Pharma, Dr Reddy's fall

Ø Jindal Stainless plans to trim Rs 8,580 cr of debt by 64 per cent



Ø Govt sets ball rolling for e-auction of eight coal mines

Ø Fed officials again flag December rate hike

Ø Strides Arcolab changes name to Strides Shasun Ltd

Ø Infosys completes acquisition of Noah Consulting

Ø Modi, Ambani, Pichai among Time Person of the Year contenders

18/11/2015

Ø Infra project budgets may drop land cost for faster nods

Ø India Inc's overseas investment down 21% at $2.3 bn

Ø US consumer prices rise, may back rate hike views

Ø Rosneft to buy Essar Oil; Iran in talks for refineries

Ø Piramal Healthcare UK Ltd invests £2.0 mn in Scotland

Ø FIIs can now invest upto 12% in Pipavav Defence: RBI

Ø Jet, IndiGo, SpiceJet fined for cartelisation



Ø Maharashtra govt to take back unused industrial land

Ø Industry cheers govt's new petroleum exploration policy

Ø Maharashtra govt not to move SC seeking fresh ban on Maggi noodles

Ø Bhushan Steel, Electrosteel Steels might look for strategic investors

Ø BSNL reports operating profit of Rs 672 cr for FY15

Ø IVRCL to get Rs 400 crore from loss-making sale of TN road projects

Business Line



Mint

Ø Blackstone to divest 50% of its investment in Synergy Properties

Ø Sun Pharma to consolidate market share in pain relief biz segment

Ø Solar capacity may reach 3,645 MW in 2016: Mercom

Ø Current account deficit to be 1% of GDP: Citi

Ø Number of active investor a/c with CDSL crosses 1-cr mark

Ø 7th Pay Commission to submit report on Nov 19



Ø CLSA’s Christopher Wood warns bad loans India’s biggest problem

Ø Videocon launches FCCB issue to exchange part of existing bonds

Ø Verdict reserved on arbitrator dispute between RIL, govt

Ø India’s October oil demand highest in 5 months on vehicle sales

Ø Craftsvilla raises $34 million from Sequoia, others

Financial Express



Financial Chronicle

Ø Sensex P/E ratio highest among emerging markets on steady foreign inflow

Ø Sensex closes 104 points up on value buying, global cues; Nifty settles above 7,830

Ø Crop insurance, irrigation key to raising pulse output

Ø Indian Railways hikes minimum train fare from Rs 5 to Rs 10

Ø Sugar stocks sweeten on expectations of lower crop output



Ø Policy on coal linkages likely in 15 days: Govt

Ø ITC Infotech partners with Ramco Systems

Ø Residential realty prices may worsen: Study

Ø Axis MF eyes Rs 700 cr from Children's Gift Fund

Ø Airtel, NTPC to take a bad hit if rupee falls by 15%: Fitch

Ø Western Coalfields lines up Rs 6,280 cr investment by FY20

02/11/2015

Usd 65.70

03/10/2015

Santa: I have heard recently that Mr. Rajan has reduced Repo Rate by 50 basis points and everyone is saying that this is good for the market. Loan EMI may also come down. What is this rate cut means actually? I want to understand this.

Banta: To understand this you first need to know, how does a bank function.

Santa: Why?

Banta: Because all these are inter-related. Tell me – what does a bank do?

Santa: Bank takes money from depositors and gives loan to earn interest. That way they keep everyone happy and make a profit also.

Banta: Correct, but there are more to it. Let me explain this in a very simplistic way. Bank needs money. Bank can get money from depositors like you and me and also from RBI. But bank also needs to pay certain interest to us and also to RBI.

Santa: Ok.

Banta: Let us try to understand first – what happens when we deposit, say, Rs. 100 with a bank.

Santa: I know that. Bank gives that Rs. 100 to someone who needs a loan.

Banta: No, it is not that simple. Remember, though bank can earn interest by giving away loans, but it is also very risky. There are many cases of loan defaults. This way banks can put all our money into high risk areas. It has to be protected.

Santa: How?

Banta: Ok, RBI has made it mandatory that upon receiving, say, Rs. 100 – banks first have to deposit Rs. 4 with RBI. RBI keeps this Rs. 4 in its current a/c and hence banks do not receive any interest on this money. This is known as Cash Reserve Ratio or CRR, which is currently at 4%.

Santa: Hmmm, then?

Banta: RBI has also made it mandatory that upon receiving, say, Rs. 100 – banks need to compulsorily buy central and state govt. securities of Rs. 21.50. Of course banks will earn some interest income here. This is known as Statutory Liquidity Ratio (SLR), which is currently at 21.50%.

Santa: Ok, so you mean to say that upon receiving Rs. 100, banks can spend only Rs. 74.50 at its own will.

Banta: Correct. 100 – (4 + 21.50) = 100 – 25.50 = 74.50

Santa: But you were saying that banks can also borrow from RBI. What interest banks pay to RBI?

Banta: Before 30th September, banks were paying 8.25% interest to RBI when it borrows money from RBI. Now this rate has been reduced by 50 basis points. So banks now need to pay interest to RBI, if it borrows from RBI, at the rate of 7.75%. This is known as Repo Rate.

Santa: Can fixed deposit rate be affected by reduction of Repo Rate?

Banta: Of course. If banks get money from RBI @7.75%, why will banks pay higher interest to you and me? One year FD rate is already revised by many banks and it is equal to or very close to 7.75%.

Santa: But as now banks are getting money at a cheaper rate, then they should reduce the loan interest rate i.e. passing on the benefits it receives.

Banta: Correct. They should. And on that hope market is cheering. If companies get loan at a cheaper rate, they will likely to expand their businesses. That will create more jobs, more income and boost the economy.

Santa: How is inflation linked to this?

Banta: See, when loan becomes cheaper, people tends to borrow more. That means people will have more money to spend. This will increase the demand for goods, and if supply does not increase to match this demand, then prices will increase.

Santa: So there is a chance, that inflation may rise also?

Banta: Well, yes. But inflation depends on many other factors as well, like production (industrial and agricultural), manufacturing, export – import, foreign currency movement etc. So inflation may increase or may not.

Santa: One last question. Like we deposit our money with banks, can banks also deposit their money with someone?

Banta: Yes, they can deposit with RBI and earn interest too. This interest is typically 1% less than the repo rate. This rate is known as Reverse Repo Rate.

Santa: Great! So now I understand CRR, SLR, Repo Rate, Reverse Repo Rate and their impact on deposit rate, loan interest rate and on inflation. Thanks.

Banta: Welcome!

25/09/2015

24-SEP-2015

FII EQ: -115.10
DII EQ: +50.67
FII FO: +3011.27

IND FUT: -632.50
IND OPT: +3643.22
STK FUT: +39.35
STK OPT: -38.80

23/09/2015

News:
Sensex ends 541 points lower tracking weak European cues

Markets end sharply lower; Nifty ends below 7,800

Another round of EM currency sell-off is concerning global investors: Pratik Gupta

Tata Motors drops on worries over wider probe in car industry after VW woes

CNX Nifty to be renamed Nifty 50

MMTC rises 5% as board okays ICEX stake sale

Castrol India gains as Wadala unit closure not to impact financial performance

Amtek Auto tumbles 20% on reports of missing Rs 800 crore bond payment deadline

L&T Finance gains after Bain Capital picks up 10.2% stake

Motherson Sumi cracks 6% on Volkswagen woes

Atlas Cycles (Haryana) surges over 40% in four days

State Bank of Mysore advances post revision of base rates

Mindtree rallies after being selected by Molnlycke Healthcare for IT solutions

Infosys gains on securing three-year contract from TOMS Shoes

COAI opposes compensation for call drops

Balmer lines up Rs 400 cr capex for next 3 yrs

Market for SDR in India is yet to develop: Charan Singh

Stamp duty stumps operations in re-auctioned coal mines

Aircel to improve 4G coverage by Dec to meet deadline: CTO

Bestdealfinance raises $3 mn in series A

Snapdeal and Credila tie up to provide online education loans

Modi should engage with Tesla to bring renewable tech to India: Naren Gupta

69% of unsold homes in Mumbai priced over Rs 1 cr

International data roaming: a market primed for disruption

Marico appoints new chief of strategy, M&A and new business

Flipkart moves closer to going app-only

Crisil downgrades outlook on BHEL's long term bank loans

MIT Institute launches accelerator programme for edtech start-ups

IFC to invest up to $15 million in Accion Frontier Inclusion Fund

Nooyi, Bharatiya presented with USIBC global leadership award

18/09/2015

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