Topone Markets, Seoul (2025)

28/08/2025

The White House’s policy of using a 25% tariff preference as an incentive to induce India to stop purchasing Russian oil has an actual impact far lower than market expectations, with limited bearish effect on . Data shows that Russian oil already accounts for 35%-42% of India’s total oil imports, and Indian state-owned refineries have locked in Russian oil orders for September-October. Meanwhile, the 5%-7% discount offered by Russia makes India’s procurement cost $8-$10 per barrel lower than the international average price. Driven by such economic rationality, India has explicitly rejected the U.S. request and even suspended parcel shipments to the U.S. as a countermeasure. Therefore, this policy is more of a political gesture in nature and is unlikely to alter the global crude oil supply-demand balance.

Additionally, U.S. EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending August 22 fell by 239,000 barrels, exceeding expectations, while strategic petroleum reserves increased by 776,000 barrels. This indicates that the inventory decline is partly due to reserve releases rather than an increase in real demand—which explains why only edged up 0.79% to $63.65 per barrel amid bullish news. From a technical perspective, the current price is testing the resistance of the 50-day moving average ($63.75); if it fails to break through this level, it may return to the $62-$63 consolidation range. For trading advice, the long strategy at 63.544 needs to be cautious of pressure from shale oil production resumption: after oil prices stabilized above $63, the number of rigs in the Permian Basin has increased by 8% month-on-month, which may suppress upward momentum.

27/08/2025

The latest tariff policy signals released by Trump have caused a significant divided impact on the market: on one hand, he explicitly stated that "high furniture tariffs will be introduced soon" and that "export restrictions and tariffs will be imposed on foreign digital taxes," which directly weighs on furniture import and export enterprises. From industry data, the U.S. reliance on furniture imports reaches 28% (with China and Vietnam contributing over 60% of total imports). High tariffs will increase importers' costs by 15%-20% month-on-month—either passing the costs on to consumers (pushing up inflation) or compressing their own profits (the net profit margin of leading import enterprises may drop from 8% to below 5%). At the same time, the export restrictions targeting digital tax countermeasures may trigger retaliatory tariffs from major furniture export markets such as the European Union and Southeast Asia, further impacting U.S. domestic furniture exports (exports to the EU account for 15% of total U.S. furniture exports), and the profit expectations of the furniture sector will come under pressure in the short term.

26/08/2025

Intel's statement regarding the potential increase of government shareholding to 15% has a two-way impact on .

On one hand, the involvement of government capital may bring policy preferences (such as chip subsidies and priority in orders), which aligns with Trump’s "manufacturing reshoring" strategy. This is consistent with the 2025 case where Intel received $12 billion in federal funds to expand its wafer fabs.

On the other hand, government shareholding may restrict the flexibility of the company’s decision-making (e.g., selection of technical routes, overseas investments), triggering market concerns about "political interference in business operations."

From a market reaction perspective, surged by 6.97% in a single day after the policy announcement, reflecting that investors are more focused on short-term policy dividends rather than long-term risks. It is important to note that if the government’s shareholding ratio exceeds 10%, it may trigger a review under the Antitrust Law—subsequent changes in shareholding should be closely monitored.

22/08/2025

The preliminary reading of the U.S. S&P Global Composite PMI for August came in at 55.4, marking an 8-month high. This data serves as a clear bullish driver for the U.S. manufacturing sector — the PMI reading far exceeds the 50 boom-bust line, and sub-indices for production and new orders improved simultaneously (the new orders index rose 2.1 percentage points month-on-month to 56.2), directly reflecting resilience in end-demand. As a result, traders have scaled back bets on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates twice this year; CME data shows the probability of a September rate cut has dropped from 41% to 32%.

However, U.S. initial jobless claims for the previous week (seasonally adjusted to 235,000) recorded the largest increase since late May, while continuing claims rose by 30,000 to 1.972 million — the highest level since November 2021. These figures reveal risks of a marginal cooling in the labor market, which would theoretically weigh on the U.S. dollar. Nevertheless, the still closed up 0.43% at 98.62. The core reason lies in the fact that the "resilient PMI" carried more weight than the bearish labor market data: the market believes that manufacturing expansion means the economy does not need aggressive rate cuts, and the cooling in employment has not reached a "crisis threshold." Combined with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rebounding to 4.330% (strengthening the interest rate differential advantage), these factors collectively supported the dollar’s strength.

The U.S. and the EU have officially finalized the framework of a trade agreement, under which the U.S. will impose tariffs of up to 15% on most EU goods (including automobiles). This is a short-term bullish factor for U.S. auto manufacturing concept stocks: taking the BMW X5 as an example, after the tariff increases from 10% to 15%, the import cost per unit will rise by approximately $3,000. The market share of U.S. domestic automakers (such as Ford and General Motors) is expected to increase from 45% to 48%-50%. However, we need to remain vigilant about the risk of EU retaliation (e.g., imposing tariffs on U.S. agricultural products); the short-term finalization of the agreement still injects momentum into the sector.

21/08/2025

The CFO of OpenAI’s mention of "considering an IPO in the future" serves as a medium-to-long-term bullish signal for U.S. AI-related stocks. As a leading enterprise in the global generative AI sector, OpenAI’s IPO will directly drive attention to the upstream computing power industry (e.g., chips) and downstream application sectors (e.g., AI software services), and may even reshape the valuation framework of the AI sector. In the short term, while this news did not immediately reverse the downward trend of the (which fell 0.67% on the day), it has alleviated market concerns about "capital withdrawal" in the AI industry—especially after Meta scaled back its AI division, OpenAI’s IPO plan has injected a new capital narrative into the sector. Going forward, attention should be paid to its IPO timeline and the use of funds raised: if the funds are inclined to be invested in computing power, it will further benefit hardware manufacturers such as .

20/08/2025

Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman’s proposal to allow Fed staff to hold small amounts of cryptocurrencies serves as a clear bullish driver for the crypto market. From a policy signal perspective, this marks a shift in the Fed’s stance on cryptocurrencies—moving from its previous cautious watchfulness to moderate openness. Historically, the U.S. central bank has long maintained regulatory vigilance toward digital assets, and this proposal directly eases market concerns about "excessively tight regulation." For institutional capital, the improved policy certainty will further attract incremental funds into the sector; for instance, BlackRock’s current holdings have exceeded 620,000 coins (with a market value of over $58.5 billion), which is a concrete sign of recovering institutional confidence in cryptocurrencies. However, it is important to note that the current bullish momentum is primarily concentrated in the spot market, while the futures segment remains constrained by expectations of the Fed’s high interest rates—leading to a divergence between spot and futures prices.

19/08/2025

Hamas’ agreement to the Gaza ceasefire proposal directly weakened the geopolitical risk premium in the crude oil market, which should have been bearish for oil prices. However, and experienced a "drop-first-then-rise" trend on the day, with the core lying in the battle between bullish and bearish factors:
The bearish side was dominated by "eased supply concerns" triggered by the ceasefire, dragging down to an intraday low of $61.41 (close to the U.S. shale oil cost floor of $61–$63 per barrel).
On the other hand, the bullish side benefited from the U.S. pressuring India to halt Russian crude imports. As the world’s third-largest crude importer (with a daily average import of 5.4 million barrels in 2024, 22% of which came from Russia), India would be forced to adjust its import structure and shift to Middle Eastern or U.S. crude if it stopped buying Russian oil—this indirectly boosted global crude demand expectations.
Ultimately, closed up 0.43% at $62.53 per barrel, while closed up 0.54% at $65.95 per barrel. This clearly demonstrates the effectiveness of the $62 per barrel level as a cost-driven support.

14/08/2025

Let’s listen to the investment wisdom of one of the most legendary figures on Wall Street—the greatest speculator, Jesse Livermore. He entered the stock market at age 14 with just $5, and 38 years later, his net assets had grown by $100 million. In the 1920s, he was the person who made the most money from Wall Street, earning him the title of “The Greatest Stock Trader of the Century” by The New York Times.

1、Although he ultimately died by su***de, his precise trading techniques and market strategies are still applied today. From his quotes, we can learn his deep insights into human nature and the markets, helping us grow in our own investment journey. Here are ten selected quotes to share with you today:

2、There’s nothing new on Wall Street. Whatever happens in the stock market now has happened before and will happen again, because human nature never changes.

3、Top-tier investors always know how to wait patiently, letting the market validate their judgment. Remember, the secret to making big money lies not in frequent buying and selling, but in patient waiting.

4、Don’t blindly trust rumors or so-called insider tips—do your own research.

5、Speculation is the most fascinating game in the world, but it’s not suitable for the foolish, lazy, emotionally unstable, or those dreaming of overnight riches.

6、Cut losses in time to ensure mistakes don’t cause excessive damage—never risk more than 10% on a single error.

7、Frequent trading is the path of losers.

8、Speculation is a serious business that must be run according to commercial principles. Don’t expect a newly opened shop to earn more than 25% profit.

9、Focus on the most outstanding opportunities of the day. If you can’t make money from the “leaders”, you won’t make money in the market overall.

10、Withdraw half of your profits as reserve funds.

Never fantasize about selling at the absolute top—that’s a foolish move.

May we all learn from Jesse Livermore’s successes and achieve great growth on our investment journey!

08/08/2025

At last week’s U.S. interest rate decision, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell maintained a hawkish stance, announcing that there would be no rate cuts. This marked the fifth consecutive meeting in which the Fed has kept rates unchanged in the 4.25%–4.50% range.

At the subsequent press conference, Powell reiterated that “unemployment remains low, inflation is slightly elevated, and keeping rates unchanged is in line with expectations.” His remarks once again drew sharp criticism from former President Donald Trump on social media, who even called for Powell’s removal. However, due to the Fed’s institutional independence, the U.S. president has no direct authority to intervene in its decisions.

The day after the rate decision, the U.S. Department of Labor released July employment data: the unemployment rate matched market expectations, but nonfarm payrolls increased by only 73,000 — far below the forecast of 110,000. At the same time, figures for the previous two months were drastically revised downward — May from 144,000 to 19,000, and June from 147,000 to 14,000 — a combined reduction of 258,000 jobs, or an 88.86% decline. Such sharp revisions have sparked speculation about potential political maneuvering behind the numbers.

Since taking office, Trump has repeatedly voiced dissatisfaction with the Fed’s monetary policy and frequently pressured for rate cuts during key economic periods to support his strategy of bringing manufacturing back to the U.S. and driving economic expansion. The Fed, however, has placed greater emphasis on controlling inflation and preventing economic overheating, deepening policy friction between the two sides.

Before the July rate decision, markets expected a 66% chance of a September rate cut. Following Powell’s remarks, that probability fell to 40%; but after the Labor Department released weak jobs data, expectations surged to 83.5%.

It is worth noting that August has historically been a period of heightened volatility in global financial markets. On one hand, the current “tariff suspension” measure is set to expire this month, and Trump is expected to reprice tariffs on other countries. On the other hand, August has often been a month of macro policy shifts, geopolitical risks, and market turning points. In a low-liquidity, holiday trading environment, any unexpected news could trigger sharp price swings.

In the cryptocurrency market, such volatility is often further amplified. Bitcoin may face a deep correction, so investors should closely monitor potential “black swan” events in August and their impact on market sentiment.

07/08/2025

As reflected in Wednesday’s market close，the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2% in Wednesday's stock market trading.
Among individual stocks, Apple (AAPL) surged 5.1% amid reports that the tech giant will announce a $100 billion investment in the U.S., in addition to the $500 billion commitment it made over the past four years.
Its nearly 6% rally also contributed significantly to gains in both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite. The Nasdaq recorded a 1.2% gain, marking its second-highest close on record, while the S&P 500 ended up 0.7%.
Other major tech stocks also performed well:
· Nvidia (NVDA) rose 0.65%
· Broadcom (AVGO) gained about 3%
· Tesla (TSLA) climbed 3.6%
· Meta Platforms (META) advanced 1.2%
Overall, the tech sector showed solid strength.
However, multiple market analysts have pointed out that several technical indicators suggest the market has risen too fast in the short term. Many tech stocks now have an RSI (Relative Strength Index) above 70, a classic sign of an overbought condition. At the same time, the VIX volatility index has risen, indicating that investors are beginning to increase hedging activity.
From a technical perspective, this appears to be a healthy correction, potentially helping the market build new momentum. If economic data does not deteriorate significantly and AI-related enthusiasm persists, capital could once again flow back into tech stocks.
Disappointing U.S. economic data and signs of a cooling labor market have strengthened expectations of a rate cut in September. According to official data from the World Bank, the U.S. GDP stands at $29.185 trillion, with an inflation rate of 2.7% and an unemployment rate of 4.2%.
If inflation rebounds and the Federal Reserve delays its rate cut, it could weigh on overvalued tech stocks. In the short term, a healthy correction may occur. Investors should approach short-term volatility with caution, wait for the RSI to fall back to a reasonable range, and consider moderate positioning.

06/08/2025

In a CNBC interview, Donald Trump stated that he is considering treating semiconductors and chips as a separate tariff category, because he want them made in the United States,This announcement drawing market attention.
Although the market hasn't shown a strong reaction yet, short-term volatility in the chip sector may increase, especially for certain export-oriented companies.
Investors should closely monitor the implementation of future policies and the details of the upcoming tariff measures.

01/08/2025

President Trump has enacted sweeping new tariffs through executive orders, imposing a 35% levy on Canadian goods effective immediately (up from 25%), citing Canada's failure to curb fentanyl trafficking.

Nearly 70 other trading partners face tariffs ranging from 10% to 40%, though most rates will take effect in seven days rather than the original August 1 deadline.

Notable rates include 25% for India, 20% for Taiwan, 15% for the EU/Japan/South Korea, and 19–20% for Southeast Asian nations.

Mexico secured a 90-day reprieve from higher tariffs after negotiations.

The orders include strict anti-evasion measures: Goods transshipped through third countries to avoid tariffs face an additional 40% penalty.

The policy relies on the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act, which Trump invoked to declare a national emergency over trade deficits.

Economists warn consumers will bear rising costs, with Yale Budget Lab data showing existing tariffs already pushed effective rates to 18.4%—the highest since 1933—and further increases are expected.

Learn more, visit www.top1markets.com

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