09/10/2018
General Weather Updates (9 - 13 Oct 2018)
Weather Synopsis:
(1) A Cyclone is seen to have developed over Arabian Sea on 08oct, and is expected to intensify further into a Severe Cyclonic Storm by 09oct. It is expected to move slowly NW wards towards South Oman by 12oct/night.
Though it is not of much concern or importance for Nepal but some of its very high level thin clouds to be driven towards Nepal by very high level Westerly Jet winds (108kph or more) by 09oct(ngt) - 11oct and after.
(2) A deep Low Pressure System or a Depression seem to have developed over Bay of Bengal on 08oct and is expected to strengthen further and move NW towards coastal India in Orissa.
Though the system is not coming closer to Nepal but its effect may be to slightly increase some moisture over Nepal during 09oct(aftn) to 12oct, and hence some occasional clouds to be seen during this period and short Sn-shrs in high Himalaya but short T-showers at few places of Nepal.
(3) As an influence of very high-level Jet Winds (108kph or more, above 8500m - 9000m), it may be windy even at 5000m, more in focus by 11oct after with winds reaching up to 30-40kph.
Weather in focus:
(1) Khumbu region:
08-09oct: Few clouds but Mornings are usually Clear/better. Some clouds grow by aftn/evngs and a smaller risk of short Sn-shrs. Better night on 08oct but on 09oct, Very high level thin clouds above 9000m.
10-11oct: Not very thick but little more clouds and risk short Sn-shrs by aftn-early nights. Some very high-level clouds at night also.
12-13oct: Some very high-level thin clouds at morning and nights but some aftn/evng clouds develop and smaller risk of brief Sn.
Freezing level: about 4400m.
Temperature(T) at 5000m: about -04C.
(2) Thorong La - Annapurna region:
08-09oct: Better mornings but few clouds to grow by aftn/evngs, smaller risk of brief Sn-shrs by 09oct. Clouds clear by night on 08oct, but on 09oct, some very high level thin clouds.
10-11oct: Some thin morning clouds but little better. Some aftn/evng clouds grow and a risk of short Sn-shrs. Some thin night clouds remain.
12-13oct: Better/clear mornings. Some aftn/evng clouds grow and smaller risk
of short Sn-shrs.
In the Southern side of Annapurna towards Pokhara, Some clouds grow by aftn-evenings and risks of short Shower/T-shower during 09-12oct with some night clouds on 09-10oct.
Freezing level: about 4200m to 4300m.
Temperature(T) at 5000m: about -05C.
(3) Larkya Pass - Manaslu region:
08-09oct: Better mornings but few clouds to grow by aftn/evngs, smaller risk of brief Sn-shrs by 09oct. Clouds clear by night on 08oct, but on 09oct, some very high-level thin clouds.
10-11oct: Some thin morning clouds but little better. Some aftn/evng clouds grow and a risk of short Sn-shrs. Some thin night clouds remain.
12-13oct: Better/clear mornings. Some aftn/evening clouds grow and smaller risk of
short Sn-shrs.
Freezing level: about 4200m to 4300m.
Temperature(T) at 5000m: about -05C.
Impression:
Though not a big system, but some clouds occasionally from 09oct(aftn/evng) to 11oct and risk of short Sn-shower at some places of high Himalaya, but short T-showers at one or two places of mid-mountains.
On 11oct, however, a small Western Disturbance from Western Himalaya moving eastwards may increase the chances of short weather.
Source: Nepal Mountain Academy, MOCTCA
