16/07/2025
TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NR. 4
Tropical Depression
Issued at 5:00 AM, 17 July 2025
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 11:00 AM today.
“CRISING” MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH WHILE MOVING WEST NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SEA EAST OF BICOL REGION.
Location of Center (4:00 AM): The center of Tropical Depression CRISING was estimated based on all available data at 535 km East of Juban, Sorsogon (13.1°N, 128.9°E).
Intensity: Maximum sustained winds of 55 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 70 km/h, and central pressure of 1000 hPa
Present Movement: West northwestward at 15 km/h
Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds: Strong winds extend outwards up to 300 km from the center
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT
TCWS No. 1
Luzon
Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Isabela, the northeastern portion of Aurora (Dilasag, Casiguran, Dinalungan, Dipaculao), Quirino, Kalinga, the eastern portion of Mountain Province (Sadanga, Barlig, Paracelis, Natonin), the eastern portion of Ifugao (Alfonso Lista, Aguinaldo, Mayoyao, Banaue, Hingyon, Lagawe, Lamut), the northeastern portion of Nueva Vizcaya (Kasibu, Quezon, Bagabag, Diadi) and Apayao
Wind threat: Strong winds
Warning lead time: 36 hours
Range of wind speeds: 39 to 61 km/h (Beaufort 6 to 7)
Potential impacts of winds: Minimal to minor threat to life and property
OTHER HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rainfall Outlook
Refer to Weather Advisory No. 7 issued at 5:00 AM today for the heavy rainfall outlook due to Tropical Cyclone CRISING and the Southwest Monsoon.
Severe Winds
The wind signals warn the public of the general wind threat over an area due to the tropical cyclone. Local winds may be slightly stronger/enhanced in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds. Winds are less strong in areas sheltered from the prevailing wind direction.
• Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 1.
The highest Wind Signal which may be hoisted during the occurrence of CRISING is Wind Signal No. 3.
The Southwest Monsoon will bring strong to gale-force gusts over the following areas (especially in coastal and upland areas exposed to winds):
• Today: Batangas, Quezon, Bicol Region, MIMAROPA, Visayas, Zamboanga del Norte, Camiguin, Surigao del Norte, Dinagat Islands, Davao Occidental, Davao Oriental, and Sarangani.
• Tomorrow: Bataan, Metro Manila, CALABARZON, Bicol Region, MIMAROPA, Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula, Basilan, Sulu, Tawi-Tawi, Misamis Occidental, Lanao del Norte, Camiguin, Surigao del Norte, Dinagat Islands, Davao Occidental, and Davao Oriental.
• Saturday (19 July): Metro Manila, Central Luzon, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula, Misamis Occidental, Lanao Del Norte, Camiguin, Dinagat Islands, Davao Occidental, and Davao Oriental.
Coastal Inundation
There is a minimal to moderate risk of life-threatening storm surge with peak heights reaching 1.0 to 2.0 m in the next 48 hours over the low-lying or exposed coastal localities of Cagayan including Babuyan Islands and Isabela. Refer to Storm Surge Warning No. 1 issued at 2:00 AM today for the details.
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
24-Hour Sea Condition Outlook
Up to rough seas over the following coastal waters:
• Up to 2.5 m: The western seaboard of Palawan; the northern and eastern seaboards of Catanduanes; the northern and western seaboards of Zamboanga del Norte and Camiguin; the southern seaboards of Negros Oriental, Siquijor, Bohol and Southern Leyte; the eastern seaboards of Davao Region; and the western seaboards of Surigao del Norte and Dinagat Islands.
Up to moderate seas over the following coastal waters:
• Up to 2.0 m: The northwestern seaboard of Occidental Mindoro; the northwestern seaboard of Masbate; the southwestern seaboards of Antique and Negros Occidental; the eastern seaboards of Northern and Eastern Samar.
• Mariners of motorbancas and similarly-sized vessels are advised to take precautionary measures while venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigation under these conditions.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
• CRISING will move generally northwestward over the next 48 hours. A landfall scenario over mainland Cagayan tomorrow evening to Saturday (19 July) early morning is possible. Afterwards, it will move west northwestward traversing the northern portion of Northern Luzon, and may exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility by Saturday (19 July) evening or Sunday (20 July) morning.
• CRISING is forecast to reach Tropical Storm category today. It is forecast to continue intensifying over the Philippine Sea and may reach Severe Tropical Storm category on tomorrow afternoon or evening before its approach to Northern Luzon.
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.
The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 11:00 AM today.
DOST-PAGASA
