08/31/2026
NO HURRICANES YET: 2026 MOVING INTO RARE TERRITORY
It’s the last day of August, and we still haven’t had a hurricane form in the Atlantic. Not that anyone around here is complaining!
As of 2pm on August 31, 2026 ranks 8th for the latest first Atlantic hurricane of the satellite era, which began in 1966. And there’s a very good chance we’re not done climbing the list.
Tropical Storm Eduoard will form soon in the northern Gulf, but is likely to make landfall in Texas below hurricane strength. So, it seems likely that we won’t see a hurricane through Wednesday, which would move 2026 all the way into 5th place. More tropical waves will roll off the African coast over the next several weeks, but for now they’ll be fighting an uphill battle. Hostile wind shear and widespread sinking air, both characteristic of a very strong El Niño pattern, continue to dominate much of the tropical Atlantic. Those conditions make it extremely difficult for tropical systems to thrive.
Perhaps even more remarkable, none of our major forecast models currently develop a hurricane in the Atlantic during the next two weeks. If that forecast holds, 2026 could make a serious run at the record for the latest first hurricane of the modern satellite era: September 11, set by Gustav in 2002 and tied by Humberto in 2013.
There is an interesting historical footnote. The 1907 and 1914 seasons had no hurricanes in the official record, but both occurred long before satellites provided continuous coverage of the Atlantic. Back then, ships were one of the primary ways of discovering storms over the open ocean. A hurricane could form, spend its entire life at sea and dissipate without ever crossing a shipping route. And if ships knew a hurricane was nearby, they generally did their best to avoid it! So comparing those early seasons with today's satellite era isn't exactly apples to apples.
Keep in mind, we're just now entering the climatological peak of Atlantic hurricane season. A quiet start certainly doesn't mean we're in the clear. Mother Nature doesn't care about records or seasonal statistics, and it only takes one hurricane in the wrong place to turn an otherwise quiet season into a devastating one.
