Trinidad & Tobago General Aviation

03/24/2025

03/05/2025

10/28/2024

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10/24/2024

Aviation facilitates travel and Tourism, among other key economic drivers which help to provide sustainable livelihoods 👍
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10/24/2024

One region, many festivals, lots of new connectivity 😊
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10/24/2024

With the makers of the Icon A5, due to exit Chapter 11 after a successful debt restructuring, in early 2025, can you find the right combination of parameters, to make a commercial GA business venture in the eastern or southern Caribbean work for you by leveraging the FAA certified export version 🤔
Here’s a tool which can help you craft your early search for the right business model 😉

Tool for investigating the effect of various set performance targets upon performamce metrics

05/18/2024

Looking for folk interested in working towards adoption of LSA in T&T.
If you wish to contribute to a ‘white’ paper to be submitted to the relevant authorities, where the aim is to build a framework for discovery of how best to go about introducing Light Sport Aviation into Trinidad & Tobago, in a way that aligns with the goals of the Civil Aviation Act of Trinidad and Tobago (Laws of Trinidad & Tobago, Chapter 49:03 of 2003 and subsequent amendments), please express your desire to so do in the comments below and we can all take the first steps together.
Thank you 🙏
< Please share with anyone you believe might be interested in participating >

12/26/2023

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Hybrid Airlines, innovation in the commercial aviation business model

12/26/2023

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A strategy with which to satisfy the needs of multiple aviation stakeholders simultaneously.

12/14/2023

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(Growth go forward)

The need for expansion of Piarco International Airport’s infrastructure may have to come sooner than we might think
Although traffic has remained largely the same over the first 23 years of this century so far, due to a confluence of issues (the impact of the SARS and West Nile viruses on air travel, the demise of BWIA Int. and early teething problems with the growth of its replacement CAL, the impact of the 2008 global financial crisis and most recently, the unprecedented impact of the SARS-CoV-2 global pandemic) however, typically global airline passenger traffic has doubled every two decades, on average throughout history, so we may very well experience a 4x growth in passenger traffic through the airport (‘catch up’), as Regional Connectivity is vastly improved over the next 20 years, perhaps. While 7x would be the limit for a single runway configuration, our infrastructure limits growth to around 2.5x for the most part (terminal building capacity, number of gates, number of stands on the apron, etc.).
The expansion of the airport in Tobago will help to increase capacity for handling onward traveling international passengers, who will use T&T as a hub to enter the region, before hoping onto Regional connection flights but likely that will require a significant increase in the capacity of POS (TTPP), as it will be the likely hub for Regional Connectivity along with BGI for the eastern Caribbean; other hubs mught be Antigua-Barbuda in the North, Guyana in the South, Jamaica in the West.

12/14/2023

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One has to balance the quest to help folk achieve sustainable livelihoods while simultaneously addressing Environmental Sustainability concerns.
At the end of the day, it is ‘the people’ who must choose where that balance is to be.

Keeping in mind the provision for a minimum separation between landing aircraft of the same wake turbulence category, TAB and POS would each have a maximum peak operational capacity of 40 single aisle or wide body aircraft per hour.
Will we be able to handle a 5x to 7x increase in traffic with the current and the planned infrastructure ?
The POS Terminal was designed to handle up to 2.5 million passengers (6,850 per day or roughly 37 flights with passenger (PAX) capacity of 189.
Implying we still have scope for roughly a 2.5x increase in traffic, if the peak traffic is spread over a number of hours (2 hours to 3 hours).
Anything above 2.5x likely poses a problem for airline scheduling.

Interestingly enough, even if Airbus A380 aircraft, configured for 400 passengers each were utilized, 40 aircraft per hour maximum over a peak period of 3 hours, we could handle up to 7x the number of passengers transported however, our airport terminal (Gates & Apron, as well as customs, immigration and baggage claim) designs very likely could not accommodate that number of passengers (40 x 400 x 3 = 48,000) during a three hour peak traffic period.

12/14/2023

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(A Business case for a southern Caribbean satellite airport hub)

There are at least 4.5 million of South America’s wealthiest 1%, who can afford to travel to the Caribbean (not just Tobago but more than 25 different island destinations).
So let’s say you make Tobago a hub for your airline - from which you plan to launch routes into South America.
You fly to TAB as a single en route stop then from TAB, go on to POS (route’s end) for folk to transfer to Regional Airlines (CAL, InterCaribbean, etc.) to take the passengers onward to their final destination (the reverse occurring for the return journey).

You’ve essentially increased traffic into TAB, POS and the wider Caribbean, by whatever market share of that 4.5 million (typically one would aim for 30%) you can capture.

So from a business model perspective, not only are you serving a market many times larger than just the size of Tobago’s population … but also if you are flying at the typical airline Load Factor of around 80%, you can now make the unused 20% available for airbridge passengers and government does not have to subsidize them on the sector; because you can amortize the equivalent of the seat subsidy across your longer sector seat price.

Consider that if you use an aircraft with capacity any where from 130 seats to 189 seats, you can add between 650 to 950 seats per day between TAB and POS, if you have a fleet of 25 aircraft, all flying in from various cities throughout South American countries.

That would represent added capacity on the POS TAB sector of between 19% and 27% of peak season traffic.

12/12/2023

: PART EIGHT -
(The framing of a deal)

Any required subsidy on a TTPP TTCP sector could be facilitated through addition to the price of seats occupied for longer sectors of routes which include TTCP as a stop.

An economical solution might be to utilize an aircraft with large capacity (130 seats), so that the breakeven ticket price would be lower for onward destinations travelers.

The main sticking point being, having a large enough investment to facilitate aircraft acquisition.

For example, an A220-300 operating at an average load factor of 0.80, and costing $65 million USD (discounted) would require 65,000,000 /(0.8 x 7 x 365 x 130), probably would have to charge $350 USD per seat; which one would average for the network’s routes, meaning less for shorter trips, more for the longer ones.

NOTE: the estimate is based on a single flight per day, the reality is multiple flights per day would be possible on the shorter routes, once demand has grown to warrant added capacity. This would facilitate lowering of sector ticket prices.

The target price for the network routes might be for TTPP to destination and return :-

Tobago = $450 TTD
Grenada = $950 TTD (via TTCP)
Barbados = $1,430 TTD (via TTCP)
St. Vincent = $1,900 TTD (via TTCP)
Dominica = $2,375 TTD (via TTCP)
Antigua - Barbuda = $2,855 (via TTCP)
Saint Kitts - Nevis = $3,335 TTD (via TTCP)

The Airline could also use A220-300 aircraft to transport folk from South American cities to Tobago for transfer to the regional network, including Trinidad, also providing capacity to the airbridge. Such aircraft then leaving TTPP (stopping over at TTCP) would also add capacity to the airbridge.

In addition to the Eastern Caribbean and the South American network routes, A220-300 flights might be added to the schedule to augment the service during peak periods on the airbridge.

Such flights would go on to those network destinations which command the greatest demand at the commensurate times.

12/12/2023

: PART SEVEN -

(Investment methods, goals and expectations)

The annual number of trips between Trinidad and Tobago was over 800,000 back in 2019 and is expected to reach 1,000,000 by 2025-2026.

If an airline serving all of the eastern Caribbean region, were to include TTCP as one stop on all of its routes (both ways) between TTPP and other Eastern Caribbean destinations, it would increase the capacity on the Trinidad - Tobago sector, as well as schedule frequency.

The average load factor on each route would increase and thus the overall efficiency of the regional network.

There is a drive to increase Regional Connectivity in progress.

It is also likely that a new or existing airline, may intend to open new routes which currently do not exist, perhaps to South America and therefore serve a market niche that currently is underserved thus growing the overall market; it would make more sense to do such than to go head-to-head with an incumbent which has a national government as its major shareholder (i.e. CAL).

It is very possible that negotiations currently taking place, are about financing for an airline to begin operations and not the actual launch of a new airline or network hub.

If the latter were to be the case, the TTCAA would already have been in the loop, so to speak.

Discussions regarding financing does not mean that the T.H.A. or any entity would be the investor, typically nowadays, that role is undertaken by Private Equity or Venture Capital, including development banks.

The T.H.A. may become the owner of an airline or simply an investor in one, by arranging financing for acquisition of aircraft which it then directs over to a third party to operate an airline, that third party being an entity which already has experience operating an airline.

The financing investors would be given priority access to the profit (say, 80% of the 20% profit generated annually for a specified time frame, say 10 years) made by the venture (that is from the airline’s revenues) and also charge a fee (~2% of the investment total, a set fraction of which is payable each year over the time frame) paid from the airline’s revenue.

This would negate the Trinidad & Tobago taxpayer having to fund the venture.

An entity (General Partner in a Limited Liability Partnership) who charges 1/10 annually of a 2% management fee on the value of the investment, plus a 2% ‘catch up’ on the first 10% of annual profit earned and a 20/80 split of the next 10% of annual profit earned, together referred to as “carried interest”, will earn the equivalent of 12% per annum, based on a venture of 25% profitability but which actually must earn 33% profit, in order to pay the investment’s management (2%) fee. The Venture (Airline) would take home 21% of the 33% net revenue earned before carried interest and taxes. Basically also providing the Investor with a 3x R.O.I. over the specified time frame.

NOTE:
this is all supposition on my part and purely hypothetical.

12/11/2023

: PART SIX -

So you have considered all of the factors mentioned in the previous five parts of this series, including validating your assumptions about the size of the market you plan to address.

You have established both “Problem-Solution fit” for your “Value Proposition” and “Product-Market fit” for your Business Model.

You have “framed the deal” which you now intend to pitch to potential investors.

Your immediate objectives are to :-

(1) - Prepare a slide ‘pitch deck’ which you will use to present your proposal to potential investors.

Your intention at this point is to obtain feedback as to what folk like about your proposed deal and what they do not like, so that you can rework it and improve its appeal.

(2) - Begin drafting your intended Limited Partnership Agreement (LPA) for the Private Equity Partnership and your Private Placement Memorandum (PPM) for the fund, the latter which defines the Thesis for the fund (essentially, what you will do and what you will not do with investor’s money), they detail all of the legal rules, by-laws and covenants the fund will comply with and adhere to.

You will also want to look at creation of a Team to be the General Partner in the Limited Liability Partnership.

You will also want to identify the professional entities, which are to be selected to (i) set up and (ii) launch your airline and to (iii) operate it.

(3) - Identify potential investors and figure out ways to put yourself in a position which will allow you the opportunity to pitch your proposal to them.

(4) - Iterate your proposal based upon the feedback you receive, asking your potential investors for ‘soft commitments’ to invest, if they like the proposal as you go along, letting them know that you can have all of the necessary legal documents drawn up by a given date.

(5) - Once you are satisfied that the proposal is complete and compelling enough to attract ‘hard commitments’ from targeted investors (i.e. that they will meet their obligation when you issue ‘Capital Calls’), you can go ahead and have a legal firm draw up the necessary legal documents - as per your instructions in the draft LPA and the PPM, in accordance with whatever legal requirements are warranted.

(6) - Present to your potential investors for their approval and signature, the legal documents drawn up by the legal firm.

(7) - When you are ready to initiate ex*****on of your proposal, issue your first in the series of ‘Capital Calls’ to your limited partners for the funds necessary to capitalize start up of your airline.