26/11/2024
BREAKING NEWS – SEA STORY CAPSIZES NEAR SATAYA REEF – 16 STILL MISSING
This update as of 26 November 11.30 am Egyptian time. The Egyptian military, despite very challenging stormy conditions, has managed to rescue 28 passengers and crew from the liveaboard diving vessel Sea Story, which capsized in “turbulent” seas off Marsa Alam due possibly to a strong or rogue wave, and reportedly causing it to sink within five to seven minutes. However, as of yesterday evening, sixteen passengers and crew (twelve tourists and four Egyptians) were believed to be still missing according to the Red Sea governor, Major General Amr Hanafi. ( ABC News, Ahram Online, Egypt Independent and Sky News Australia)
The BBC, citing the governor reported, that “The Egyptian navy warship El Fateh and military aircraft were intensifying their efforts to locate the missing, with rescue teams working around the clock,” while an update by Ahram Online today noted that several Egyptian naval vessels as well as aircraft have been involved in a massive search and rescue effort. Unfortunately it was also reported this morning, that three bodies have been found although their nationalities have not yet been confirmed. (Sky News and the Daily Mail)
It is believed that 31 tourists were onboard the Sea Story, including five Spanish, four Belgian, four British, four German, three Slovak, two American, two Chinese, two Polish, two Swiss, one Finnish and at least one Irish national as well as 13 Egyptians. Unfortunately I haven’t yet found sufficient information to confirm all the passengers who have survived, but according to various reports the following nationals seem to be among the survivors, however as there remains some uncertainty I would urge anyone to also cross check with other sources.
Two Britons based on the fact that Sky News and other sources reported that 2 of 4 Britons were among the missing.
Two Chinese nationals are safe and “in good health,” reports the South China Morning Post, citing Chinese state media.
Five Spanish nationals have also been rescued, according to the Free Press Journal, citing Spain’s Foreign Ministry.
Four Belgian nationals are also believed to be among the survivors, reports the Dutch language Belgian newspaper HLN
Two Swiss passengers are believed to have been airlifted to safety according to Swiss media outlet Goldküste24
It might be assumed that at least four other tourists have also been rescued as earlier reports stated that 12 of the 31 tourists were believed to be still missing, however I’m not certain about this figure.
It might be assumed that nine Egyptian nationals might have been rescued if it is the case that four of the 13 Egyptians are still missing. I’m also not sure if this figure is accurate, although I hope at least nine have survived.
According to The Sun newspaper, citing Zaaed News, eight survivors have so far been named. They are Ahmed Ramzy, Mohamed Ibrahim, Ayman Foley, Ahmed Sayed Ali, Mohamed Mohamed Metwally, Ahmed Adel, Ali Shaaban and Mohamed Mustafa. However at this stage their nationality cannot be confirmed.
Unfortunately, the following nationals appear to be among the missing
Several German tourists are among the missing according to the Frankfurt based newspaper Frankfurter Rundschau, citing a spokeswoman from the German Foreign Office, though it doesn’t give the number.
Four Egyptian nationals according to Ahram Online.
Two Britons are missing according to Sky News and other sources.
One Finnish tourist is also among those missing reports the Daily Finland.
One Irish tourist is missing according to the Irish radio station Newstalk
According to Ahram Online “The Egyptian Meteorological Authority forecasted turbulence in the Mediterranean and Red Seas, advising the suspension of all maritime activities on Sunday and Monday.” Ahram online also reported that waves heights were predicted to reach about 3 to 4 metres, while the BBC reported that the windspeed was around 60 to 70 km/h (37 to 43 mph). However, the London based Asharq Al Awsat reported that “the vessel had set sail before the weather warnings were made.”
According to the Dive Pro Liveaboard website, the Sea Story was built in 2022 and was some 44 metres (144 feet) long and 9 metres (29.5 feet) wide with a hull made from wood. It had four decks and 18 cabins able to accommodate 36. It would normally have a crew of 12, including a captain, a mechanical engineer, two cooks, two waiters and six sailors.
Onboard safety equipment
In terms of safety equipment, according to the same website, it had VHF radio, DSC (presumably standing for digital selective calling allowing the crew to send an automatically formatted distress alert), GPS, radar, echo depth-sounder and Epirb ( presumably the Emergency Position-Indicating Radio Beacon which is supposed to alert search and rescue services in the event of any emergency) as well as “life jackets in each Cabin” and “two safety rafts for 25 persons each.”
The Sea Story sank near Sataya Reef
The Sea Story had left Port Ghalib, the privately owned tourist marina and harbour complex near Marsa Alam airport, on Sunday on a five day excursion which was due to finish at the well known beach resort city of Hurghada on Friday. According to the BBC the vessel sent out a distress call at approximately 5.30 am on Monday from somewhere close to the frequently visited dolphin habitat at Sataya Reef. (Reuters and Daily Sabah citing the governor).
In June this year 24 tourists were rescued from a safari boat also in the Sataya Reef area, and according to Ahram Online initial investigations suggested it may have been “due to a hole in the hull amid high waves,” in reference to “a report by the Red Sea Protected Areas Team” citing crew and passengers. According to Dive Magazine, “Exocet is reported to have sustained significant damage to its hull after striking the reef in high waves.” However, I haven’t seen any evidence at all to suggest that there was any similar hole or rupture in the hull caused to the Sea Story.
The thoughts and prayers of everyone living and working in Marsa Alam are with all those who might have been affected.
Climate change and rogue waves in the Red Sea
Rogue waves are large, unexpected waves that occur in storms and can be several times larger than typical waves. While there is no evidence yet to suggest that climate change was a factor in this incident or that it will directly cause “rogue” waves to become more common in the Red Sea, more powerful storms and increased energy in the ocean could theoretically increase the chances of “rogue” waves forming. These waves can occur when different factors align (e.g., strong winds, currents, and wave interactions), which might become more frequent with a changing climate.
Mountain topography and offshore rogue waves
In a research paper published in 2013, three academics (D. K. Ralston et al.,) argued that the Red Sea’s mountain topography was likely to have a significant impact on local wind speeds and wave heights. They noted that the Red Sea’s “surrounding coastal mountains channel near-surface winds such that monthly
mean wind vectors are largely parallel to the long axis of the basin,” but they also observed that “In addition to channelling the large-scale, seasonal winds along the basin axis, the surrounding orography also generates mountain gap wind jets.” These in turn created significant eddies in the Red Sea’s wind patterns.
They explained that “strong temperature gradients between the sea surface and adjacent desert can drive strong diurnal (daily) across-shore winds, with sea breezes during the day and land breezes at night. These across-shore winds can be intensified by funnelling through mountain gaps, resulting in an alternating pattern of wind jets and wakes along the coast.”
This phenomenon, they reasoned, could have a powerful impact on the likelihood and frequency of “freak” or “rogue” waves. They pointed to the situation in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, off the Pacific Coast of Mexico, where in the winter winds in excess of 25 metres per second (72 kmh) through a mountain gap sometimes blew offshore for a distance of 500 km leading to numerous “rogue” waves. They argued that several factors, including the intermittent timing and strong wind and energy linked with mountain gap winds, rendered them difficult to study and posed a significant problem for attempts to model wind and wave scenarios.
Their data using satellite and buoy data showed that mountain gap winds (in particular the Tokar Gap at about 19N on the Sudanese coast) could indeed have a substantial impact on wave amplitude and direction, even when the rest of the Red Sea had relatively calm conditions.
Based on their research, it would seem possible that across-shore winds generated by temperature differentials and possibly intensified by mountain gap winds, might influence the likelihood of rogue waves along some stretches of water off the Egyptian coast, even though the academics cited don’t make any direct reference to any such gaps along the Red Sea’s northwestern shore.
Sataya Reef lies in the coastal waters just to the south east of the Wadi El Gemal National Park, which has more than 50 mountain peaks, including Jabal Hamata which is 1975 metres (6480 feet) high. I’m not aware of any study on whether there might be any mountain gap or other across-shore winds that might sometimes impact offshore sea conditions in this particular area, but if a “rogue” or other “strong” wave did indeed cause this tragic accident as currently suggested by at least one survivor (South China Morning Post) and also, according to the Egypt Independent, by the Red Sea governor Amr Hanafi in a Monday evening interview with TV host Amr Adib on MBC Masr, then every possible factor that might have caused such a wave or cause one in the future needs to be investigated.
