13/10/2026
Up to 11 named tropical cyclones could form in the Southwest Pacific this season, with at least four expected to reach severe category 3 strength or higher.
Earth Sciences New Zealand’s 2026/27 Tropical Cyclone Outlook forecasts normal to above-normal activity across the region between November and April.
Between seven and 11 named cyclones are expected, compared with a long-term average of about nine a season.
The risk is expected to be higher near and east of the International Date Line, while activity in the western part of the Southwest Pacific is forecast to be normal or reduced.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/nz-news/361045952/11-cyclones-could-form-season-least-four-severe