13/11/2025
COP30 Belem, where we have been and where we are heading - Climate Analytics
What Has the Paris Agreement Done for Us? — 22 ways it is changing the 21st century for the better shows how, since 2015, the Paris Agreement has bent the global temperature curve downward. Under current policies, the world is headed for ~2.7°C this century which is disastrous for ecosystems, economies, and vulnerable communities. Ahead of COP30, a major gap remains between pledges and Paris' 1.5°C limit. That's not a flaw in the Agreement's design; it's a failure of political leadership.
Rescuing 1.5°C: new evidence on highest possible ambition to deliver the Paris Agreement shows 1.5°C can still be rescued if we act at the highest possible ambition starting now. This analysis updates IPCC AR6 scenarios to reflect today's higher starting emissions and sets out what is needed to limit overshoot above 1.5ºC, and to get temperatures back well below 1.5ºC before 2100. Under this new scenario, global warming would peak near ~1.7°C and fall to ~1.2°C by 2100, CO₂ would reach net zero before 2050 with all GHGs in the 2060s, electrification would supply nearly two-thirds of energy by mid-century, a rapid fossil-fuel phaseout would be paired with strong methane cuts, and carbon removal would scale quickly.
Real zero is within reach explores the technical feasibility and economic benefits of real zero (the complete elimination of fossil fuels by replacing them with zero-carbon alternatives, rather than compensating for them with offsets, carbon dioxide removal or carbon capture and storage). Our analysis demonstrates that reaching real zero is achievable in many sectors and identifies the economic benefits of eliminating fossil fuels. The report Real zero: delivering a fossil free future shows that pathways exist to eliminate fossil fuels in key global sectors like power, shipping, and transport, making a real zero future technically feasible. The report, Real zero: an opportunity, not a cost, examines the economic feasibility of real zero using three in-depth case studies of critical industries – the transition to battery electric trucks in Europe, green steel in Japan and green fertiliser in India. It shows that a move to zero-carbon alternatives is a direct investment in competitiveness and resilience.