16/06/2026
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PORTUGAL ON THE BRINK OF A NEW EXTREME HEATWAVE. TEMPERATURES COULD REACH 45ºC NEXT WEEK
Portugal could enter its second heatwave of 2026 in the coming days, an episode that the main meteorological models indicate will be potentially more intense and longer-lasting than the one recorded between the end of May and the beginning of June.
Just days before the official start of summer, scheduled for Sunday, June 21st, the most recent scenarios indicate a sharp rise in temperatures starting this Wednesday, with highs that could exceed 40ºC in several regions of the country and approach 45ºC in some inland areas of the Iberian Peninsula.
Map shows forecast degrees above average, on 22nd although this change over the next few days,
According to Observador, meteorological models are increasingly converging on the formation of a vast heat dome, which could reach its peak between June 22nd and 26th. Besides Portugal and Spain, France is also among the most exposed countries, with forecasts pointing to temperatures exceeding 40ºC in some regions.
Despite the growing confidence of experts, one decisive variable remains: the final position of an isolated high-altitude depression, or "cold drop," that is forming west of the Iberian Peninsula. Small changes in its location could translate into differences of several degrees in the predicted temperatures.
Meteorologists are increasingly concerned because this new episode comes just weeks after an exceptional heatwave that affected Portugal between May 20 and June 1. That phenomenon was considered the third longest heatwave ever recorded in the country, with an average duration of 9.3 days, surpassed only by the 1964 episode. In terms of intensity, it was the second most significant on record.
During that period, 25 maximum temperature records were broken, and Mora, in the Évora district, reached 40.3ºC, setting a new absolute extreme for the month of May. The heat also affected other European countries, with 16 deaths associated with it in France and the United Kingdom.
Experts warn that several factors could worsen the new episode. The soils are drier after the previous heat wave, reducing the evaporation of available moisture and favouring direct heating of the air. At the same time, the proximity of the summer solstice means longer days, more hours of sun exposure, and a greater accumulation of heat on the surface. This combination, associated with the atmospheric blocking caused by an anticyclone stationed over the Nordic countries, could prevent the dissipation of the hot air mass for several consecutive days.
Until Wednesday, the country is expected to remain under the influence of some atmospheric instability, with the possibility of showers and thunderstorms in the interior North and Central regions, especially during the afternoon. After that, a rapid rise in temperatures is expected. Current projections indicate highs between 37ºC and 40ºC in Santarém, 38ºC and 41ºC in Castelo Branco, 39ºC and 42ºC in Évora and Beja, and between 36ºC and 39ºC in Bragança and Vila Real. The most extreme scenarios even allow for values close to 43ºC to 45ºC in the southern interior of the Iberian Peninsula, while France also fears temperatures exceeding 40ºC.
In some areas of the Alentejo interior and the Guadiana Valley, scorching nights may occur, with thermometers not dropping below 25ºC. This phenomenon is considered particularly worrying for public health, as it hinders the body's recovery during the night and contributes to the progressive accumulation of heat, increasing the impact of a heat wave that could become one of the most significant in recent years.
