Spaces that enable entrepreneurs to "Sense","Presence", and "Enact" as aspects of a process of innovation, fostering and co-developing business ideas.
Listening is the most powerful leadership tool we possess. The way we pay attention influences what happens around us. In a video, Julie Arts, Senior Faculty at the Presencing Institute, introduces four levels of listening, representing four distinct places from where our listening can originate.
I'm continuing my exploration of Theory U, a framework for leading change, through the u-school for Transformation. This week's video, "The Choice of Our Time: How to Transcend Polarization" by Otto Scharmer, sheds light on navigating disruption and fostering positive change in our current climate.https://youtu.be/Wrf-gL1NIls?si=aXYJYOIXkbGdZfky
Key Takeaways:
The Choice We Face: In moments of disruption, we have two choices: absenting from the situation, leading to fear and disconnection, or presencing, leaning into the emerging future with openness and courage.
Presencing-Absencing Cycle: Scharmer explains this cycle as a framework for understanding our reactions to challenging situations. It involves cultivating open mind, open heart, and open will to respond consciously instead of freezing in fear or anger.
Raising Consciousness: True change requires us to move beyond ego-driven thinking and build a shared understanding. This involves conscious effort, discipline, and a willingness to 'be' before we 'do.'
Applying Theory U to El Salvador's Real Estate Landscape:
The Bitcoin Disruption: The recent legalization of Bitcoin and the New Digital Asset Law have disrupted El Salvador's capital markets. This presents an opportunity for innovation, but fear and polarization between traditional finance and the new technology have stalled progress.
Building Empathy and Co-Creation: The real estate industry can facilitate dialogue and understanding between stakeholders, creating spaces to explore possibilities and build prototypes together. This aligns with the principles of Theory U and the El Salvador Real Estate Syste, Lab's mission Laboratorio del Sistema Inmobiliario SV.
Challenges:
Effort and Commitment: Raising collective consciousness requires dedicated effort and a willingness to be present from all participants.
Lack of commitment dilutes the power of dialogue and prevents the emergence of new solutions.
Opportunity:
Transformative Dialogue: Theory U's framework offers a platform for fostering empathy, shared meaning, and collaboration within the El Salvador real estate system and the Laboratorio del Sistema Inmobiliario SV. By engaging in open dialogue and co-creation, stakeholders can find ways to navigate disruption and build a more promising future.
Call to Action:
The El Salvador Real Estate System Lab Laboratorio del Sistema Inmobiliario SV aims to be a catalyst for this transformative dialogue.
An interesting question i made to AI: can you sense? can you have visions of the future? its answer is that it cannot produce foresight.
El Salvador Real Estate System Lab Laboratorio del Sistema Inmobiliario SV: Notes on Theory U and the Real Estate System
My experience with the first video in the u-school for Transformation's Theory U course, titled "Essence of Systems Thinking." I have been using the framework to analyze the El Salvador real estate system and its challenges.
Observations and Analysis:
The Knowing-Doing Gap: There is a disconnect between recognizing the problems in the real estate system (gentrification, environmental damage, social displacement) and taking action to address them.
Iceberg Model: If we apply the iceberg model, highlighting the visible symptoms (gentrification, sewage pollution) and the underlying causes (greed, lack of holistic thinking).
Systemic Issues: the system's complexities, issues like:
Negative perception of foreigners: Caused by a few high-profile cases, leading to resentment from locals.
Environmental degradation: Short-sighted practices like dumping sewage threaten the tourism industry's foundation.
Social division: Excessive focus on economic development leads to burnout, social isolation, and conflict between locals and foreigners.
Focus on short-term profits: The emphasis on densification and rapid development ignores long-term social and environmental consequences.
Need for Systemic Change: the limitations of current practices and the need for:
Raising awareness: Shifting from ego-driven decision-making to a more conscious and collaborative approach.
Improved communication: Fostering active listening and understanding between different stakeholders within the system.
Potential Solutions:
Scenario Planning: Creating narratives that illustrate potential future outcomes (positive and negative) to encourage responsible investment decisions.
Empathy and Dialogue: Bringing together diverse voices, including displaced locals and foreigners facing negative perceptions, to build understanding and find common ground.
Redefining Success: Moving beyond purely economic metrics to encompass social and environmental well-being.
Addressing Challenges:
Limitations of AI and Ego: Acknowledgement that artificial intelligence lacks empathy and foresight, and ego-driven actions prevent clear vision of the present and future.
Call to Action:
The El Salvador Real Estate System Lab is envisioned as a platform for facilitating these necessary conversations and fostering systemic change in the real estate industry.
SYSTEMS THINKING FOR THE REAL ESTATE SYSTEM
Today we are continuing to start the El Salvador Real Estate Lab Laboratorio del Sistema Inmobiliario SV . On August 2nd Luis Dominguez Luis Ernesto Dominguez Magaña founder of the CCIL Creative Class & Intelligentsia Lab registered to the offering on the u-school for Transformation (by Presencing Institute Presencing Institute ) : u-lab 0x . Theory U is an awareness-based method for the transformation of self and system that blends systems thinking, innovation, and leading change--from the viewpoint of an evolving human consciousness. The short course will introduces key concepts in Theory U including:
The U framework.
The essence of systems thinking and systems change.
The choice we face between Presencing and Absencing.
How we can lead through the quality of our listening and attention.
The image is from a video where Otto Scharmer Otto Scharmer explains the Essence of Systems Thinking: In many cases, we know what needs to be done to address the crises we are facing but we don’t know how to make it happen. The video delves about how can we bridge this knowing-doing gap? Awareness-based systems change provides an approach that activates our individual and collective agency and helps us to sense and actualize the emerging future.https://youtu.be/zjeDGG1VdfE?si=5OYtFzO6hwli4l5O
We are looking at the learning module content.
Because of the new migration of expats from different parts of the world to El Salvador, we have chosen to analyze the Real Estate System and the Investmet House Market of the San Salvador Metropolitan Area, that includes the coastal region of Costa del Balsamo where many of this investments are coming to and gentrification is taking place and where a social divide is beeing created between locals and foreigners, appart from the environmental impact this growth is causing.
We have taken a couple of years to create an artificial simulator of the Real Estate System and have identified the variables of each part of the system:
A/SPACE MARKET Inquilinos de Espacios SV
A1) Supply side of the Space Market: Space Landlords
A.1.1.Current Inventory of Physical Spaces for Lease.
A.1.2.Current Rental Prices.
A.1.3.Forecasts of supply/Inventory.
A.1.4.Forecast of Rental Prices.
A2) Demand side of the Space Market:Space Tenants. Arrendantes de Espacios SV
A.2.1.Occupancy Levels.
A.2.2.Demand for space use.
A.2.3.Forecasts of occupancy levels.
B/ASSET MARKET
B3) Supply side of the Asset Market: Real Estate Asset Sellers Propietarios vendedores de Activos Inmobiliarios SV
B.3.1.General Forecasts on Cash Flows of Real Estate Assets and their effect on future asset values or selling prices (Property Market Value)
B.3.2.Increase or decrease in operating cash flows of assets due to increases or decreases in rental prices and occupancy rates.
B.3.4.Increase or decrease in asset selling prices due to increases or decreases in capitalization rates.
B.3.5.Owners' ability to regulate the flow of financial capital into the real estate development industry.
B4) Demand side of the Asset Market: Real Estate Asset Buyers (Investors Buying). Inversionistas compradores de Activos Inmobiliarios SV
B.4.1.Information on market capitalization rates required by real estate asset buyers in the asset market.
B.4.2.Information on investors' desires and perceptions regarding the risks and returns of real estate assets and their effects on capitalization rates. (desire for returns and perceived risks)
C.DEVELOPMENT INDUSTRY
C5) Real Estate Developers: El Desarrollador Inmobiliario SV
C.5.1.Forecasts of market values - future selling prices - of assets under development (three years).
C.5.2.Current development costs and three-year forecasts, including construction costs and land costs and their opportunity value (including acquisition costs).
C.5.3.Information regarding expected profits or earnings by Developers.
C.5.4.Forecasts of future construction or ex*****on times.
C.5.5.Number of new spaces being started (construction starts).
C.5.6.Number of new spaces that have completed construction (construction completions).
C.5.7.Spaces pre-leased before completion, demolitions, conversion of old structures, construction of new buildings, and completed "net" construction.
C.5.8.Is development profitable?
EXOGENOUS SYSTEMS TO THE REAL ESTATE SYSTEM
D.NATIONAL AND LOCAL ECONOMIES El Economista Urbano SV
D6) Economy
D.6.1.Perspectives on the Salvadoran National and Local Economies/Macroeconomies.
D.6.2.Causes within the National and Local Economies that produce demand for certain quantities of use of physical spaces of various types, as a function of the cost (rental price) of such spaces, by Tenants in El Salvador, within the space market of the Real Estate System.
D.6.3.Forecasts of macroeconomic factors such as interest rates and inflation.
E.NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL MARKETS Expertos en Mercados de Capitales e Inversiones Inmobiliarias SV
E7) Capital Markets and Real Estate Investments:
E.7.1.Investors' desires and perceptions regarding risks and returns of real estate assets compared to other types of investment available in the capital market and their effect on cap rates.
E.7.2.Availability of debt or other types of liquidity.
E.7.3.Benchmarking of asset returns, long-term interest rates, or risk-free rates and their effect on cap rates.
E.7.4.Considerations on expanded national and international capital markets: Asset Market and Money Market.
Identificación de Stakeholders y sus aportes al diálogo para la creación del prototipo para El Sistema Inmobiliario
6)El Economista Urbano SV Perspectivas sobre las Economías/Macroeconomías Nacional y Local Salvadoreñas. Causas dentro de la Economía Local y Nacional que producen demanda de ciertas cantidades de uso de espacios físicos de varios tipos, como función del costo (precio de alquiler) de dichos espacios, por parte de Inquilinos en El Salvador, dentro del mercado de espacios del Sistema Inmobiliario. Pronosticos de factores macroeconomicos como tasas de interés e inflacion.
7)Inversionistas compradores de Activos Inmobiliarios SV. información sobre tasa de capitalización de mercado requerida por inversionistas compradores de Activos Inmobiliarios en el mercado de activos. información sobre deseos y percepciones de los Inversionistas respecto a los riesgos y retornos de los activos inmobiliarios y sus efectos en las Tasas de capitalización.
almost finished editing this
Article in the process of creation.Created Saturday March 31. Last Edit: Saturday April 6th ,2024.
The gentle art of re-perceiving (Generating Management Options):Pierre Wacks method of generating scenarios.
Scenarios lead to neutral and non-advocative novel options (they lead to "see" novel realities emerging) through the design and use of an organizational nervous system.
Wack described what he called an “organizational nervous system” (Wack, 1982;
p. 13), that consisted of:
(a) global and specific scenarios:you find the blossoms on the smaller branches. Global scenarios are the trunk, and focused scenarios are the branches, on which the blossoms form – the insights.You cannot do focused scenarios until you have done global scenarios.
Otherwise, the manager will have a too low-level view of the uncertainties.
(b) competitive analysis, Unless you go at the scale where you can see differences in colors competitive positioning is meaningless. Insight can only be achieved if generalities and vagueness are avoided and an appropriate scale of observation is used. To be effective, scenario planners must dedicate time to thinking about and differentiating entities within an industry, the unique barriers that may act as competitive protection for the organization, and the relevant competitors that may pose threats.Experienced guides will bring climbers to the summit quickly and efficiently because they know the landscape, the best routes to take, and how to avoid dangers and pitfalls. Competitive positioning acts like the guide, etching this expertise into the process.Competitive positioning helps anchor the scenarios in the terrain of the industry.help decision makers understand how to improve their position in the environment: “A strategy should always be a concept for changing the existing competitive advantage. If not, you know, it
is not a real strategy”
(c) developing strategic vision:Including intention.the kind of company you want to be. “It is a system for dominance .You want to dominate one segment of your habitat, one segment of the market.Strategic vision “is expressed as a commitment to excellence in a few key capabilities, more than two but less than ten” .It defines the areas of excellence and describes the company you want to be. It does not deal with how to do. But it is situated at a high enough level that it does not need frequent revisiting.
(d)option planning. Scenarios must lead to options and the set of options requires design.“In any situation, there is always more than just one possibility”.unless scenarios led to novel options, the process was sterile.neutral and non-advocative describe the nature of real options.
I am deeply interested since some years ago, in finding out how to apply scenario planning to the real estate system. It is a fascinating endeavour for me. To have an idea of how the future could develop in the real estate system, will help investors to plan their investment objectives and strategy. Scenarios “lead decision-makers (in my case, a real estate investment manager) to question their inner model of reality and change it as necessary in order to take action that they would not be ashamed of later. Scenario planning is a discipline to re-perceive strategic openings, orchestrated through a shift in mental models.
The first step of scenario planning is to identify the predetermined elements of the system (1), and in that way the uncertainties can be planned accordingly.
Before explaining that first step, we need to know the concepts of PREDETERMINED ELEMENTS and UNCERTAINTIES. With those concepts clear we can make the appropriate questions, identification and classification of each element of the real estate system.
As a person that meditates and gives high value to meditation, I need to understand the competitive advantage that meditation can give me when creating scenarios. I have found in Pierre Wack's story and practice, that there is a difference between KNOWING and SEEING, and I want to know how to KNOW the predetermined elements and uncertainties of the real estate system (3) and how to SEE the predetermined elements and uncertainties of the real estate system(4).
One of the goals of scenario planning, as Wack explains, is to make a “sound analysis of
reality”(KNOW) and “to see things as they really are” (SEE?).
Joseph Jaworski said: Wack’s observations about seeing characterize, for me, the essence of the entrepreneurial impulse—using the power of foresight in the context of continuous change, complexity, and uncertainty. Wack describes a continuous process: deepening personal awareness and renewal; releasing limiting belief systems; scanning the business environment; identifying the driving forces at work and the resulting chains of cause and effect; accessing insights beyond the mind’s previous reach; and acting in the moment. Using these principles, a team charged with maintaining the overall strategic direction of the firm can learn to formulate and implement strategy in parallel, rather than sequentially, creating a continuous cycle of learning and action—“laying a path in waking.” (Jaworski, Joseph. Synchronicity: The Inner Path of Leadership (p. 220). Berrett-Koehler Publishers. Edición de Kindle.)
In the process of creating scenarios the phases and steps are:
Phase I: Set the Strategic Question:
a)Isolating the decision to be made.
b)Hunting and gathering information.
Phase II: Identify Driving forces of change:
c)Identifying the driving forces of change (use six sector system)
d)Identify Issues and Trends pertaining (diagnosed and classified according to the six sectors): identifying the predetermined elements (Eg:the new, the many,and the connected) and the critical uncertainties .
Phase III: Clarify their level of impact and degree of Uncertainty:
e)Prioritize (c) and (d) according to importance/impact and the uncertainty they would have on prospective priorities, policies and plans:
Indirect impact:surely shape context or less relevant-,
Direct impact:strong directional consequences or impact question in hand) and
Lower uncertainty:relatively certain or possible to anticipate effects,
Higher uncertainty:pretty uncertain or outcome uncertain
(Eg: potential jokers, pivotal uncertainties,context shapers,significant trends)
Phase IV: Create different scenarios:
f)Construct scenario plots
Phase V: Test policy options against scenarios and visions of the future:
g)Test policy options and identify implications(scenario testing and interpretation).
1.PREDETERMINED OR INEVITABLE ELEMENTS OF THE REAL ESTATE SYSTEM
These would be certainties or certain elements, comprising the future in the real estate system (those assumed which will help identify those that are not seen).
Comprising means that they are essential components or factors that contribute to shape the future. They are considered certainties or certain elements because they are based on past events or current conditions that are expected to persist into the future.
Predetermined elements are the results of events that have already occurred and can be reasonably predicted. Identifying the predetermined elements is a way of categorizing major variables and events in dynamic systems. Predetermineds are “those events that have already occurred (or that almost certainly will occur) but whose consequences have not yet unfolded”. It is commonly held that one cannot predict events and happenings, but an understanding of the drivers and the structures of change will shed some light on particular certainties, or predetermined elements. Pierre Wack believed that SENSING pre-determined elements was an art of MEDITATION.The discipline of meditation allowed him to intuit through the noise in order to reveal the essence of a dilemma. The predetermined elements can be classified in:
1.1- Predetermined Forces in the pipeline and obvious. The question is how do they play out in the future? The obvious predetermined are important to recognize and develop managerial consensus. Another question is what is the ”surprise-free” scenario, or “consensus forecast” of this force?
1.2- Predetermined Forces interrelated, or “system predetermineds”. The question is how do they play out in the future? The systems predetermineds are the most interesting and are not immediately obvious but rather are uncovered through the careful articulation of exploratory scenarios. Only with deep reflection and study of the possible actions of each key actor can some of the important predetermineds emerge.Another question is what is the ”surprise-free” scenario, or “consensus forecast” of this force?
1.3- Predetermined Forces slowly changing. The question is how do they play out in the future? Slowly changing predetermineds are often so slow as to not register and thus require careful rendering. The other question is what is the ”surprise-free” scenario, or “consensus forecast” of this force?
1.4-Predetermined impossible forces.The question is how do they play out in the future? Impossible predetermineds are critical because on first glance, they may be considered likely and reliable, but upon further inspection cannot endure.The other question is what is the ”surprise-free” scenario, or “consensus forecast” of this force? My research points out that in scenario planning, "impossible forces" refer to events or factors that, upon initial consideration, may seem likely or reliable but, upon further inspection, are deemed improbable or unfeasible. These forces are called "impossible" not because they are literally impossible in the strictest sense, but because they are highly unlikely or impractical within the context of the scenario being considered.
2.CRITICAL UNCERTAINTIES (UNCERTAIN ELEMENTS) OF THE REAL ESTATE SYSTEM
These critical uncertainties are those comprising the future in the real estate system and they help identify our assumptions or the assumed uncertainties and they also help us to identify those uncertainties that are not seen or which we do not see.
The question is which are the critical uncertainties in the real estate system? How do we map out future contexts and present raw uncertainties (in their basic or unprocessed form without them being analyzed, interpreted, or contextualized, they are initial observations of data points) in GLOBAL SCENARIOS and gain understanding and insight through perceiving more clearly the connections between various forces and events driving the system and the interrelatedness of the system that shows uncertainties that are predetermined? Another question is what are the hooks (key facts or entry points)? What are the known frames of reference from which judgment can be passed?
UNLIKELY OR NON-DETERMINED EVENTS OR SURPRISES
Such accidental but significant happenings highlight how the certainties and uncertainties are subject to a near incomprehensible interaction of unpredictable forces, actions and ideas.
3.HOW TO "KNOW" THE PREDETERMINED ELEMENTS AND UNCERTAINTIES OF THE REAL ESTATE SYSTEM
"Knowing" is done by "professionals" in a rational manner. It is about Knowing "Reality"/Facing New Realities,doing RESEARCH AND INQUIRY. It is a rational process of discovery. The question is how is "knowing" applied to the real estate system? What is the method of "knowing" the real estate system? Knowing refers to a factual intelligence (3.8.FACTS), or "justified believing" based on a reasoned context.
One of the goals of scenario planning, as Pierre Wack explains,is to make a “sound analysis of REALITY” (Know) and “to see things as they really are” (See). REALITY is contemplated in terms of DRIVING FORCES (3.1) or STRUCTURAL PATTERNS (Trends and Issues) OUT THERE (3.6.) for one to OBSERVE, reveal or discover.
My research points out that Structural Patterns can be equated to trends and issues. Structural patterns refer to the underlying, fundamental frameworks or configurations within a system or environment. Trends and issues, on the other hand, represent observable patterns or emerging topics that may influence or be influenced by these underlying structures. Therefore, trends and issues can be manifestations or outcomes of these structural patterns.
If one can only approach the world with the right state of mind and the right analytic tools, the DRIVING FORCES(3.1.) can be accurately accounted for. In this sense, the world is an object composed of driving forces(3.1.), CERTAINTIES(1.), and UNCERTAINTIES(2.) that exist despite one’s ability to perceive them. This view is indebted to REALISM.
My point out that in this context, realism refers to an approach or perspective that emphasizes understanding and interpreting the world objectively, based on factual intelligence and rigorous analysis. It involves facing new realities and conducting research and inquiry to uncover truths about the environment or system being studied. Realism entails acknowledging the existence of driving forces, certainties, and uncertainties that shape the reality despite one's subjective perceptions.
Rigorous research and serious analysis is needed to "Know". Inclusive, in-depth interviews, research (text eliminated here) information or context for stories are needed as a base to “know“. Graphs, statistics, economic indicators, demographics, models and other calculations that fortify the narratives are also needed as basis to “know“. A methodological dimension, a process that Pierre Wack called “rooting.” is what occurs when the predetermineds have entered the minds of the decision-makers, thus creating a joint point of departure. Forces(3.1.), certainties(1.), PATTERNS (Structural patterns,trends and issues) and a REALITY that can be “known“, is what “PROFESSING“ is all about.
My research points out that “professing“ refers to the process of understanding and articulating the reality of a system or environment based on factual intelligence and rigorous analysis. It involves acknowledging the driving forces, certainties, and uncertainties that exist objectively, and presenting them in a structured and reasoned manner. Professing entails making informed judgments and interpretations about the state of the system or environment, supported by thorough research and analysis.
On the other hand, myy research points out that “dichotomies“ refer to the division or contrast between two opposing concepts or perspectives. For example, forces versus maps, objective versus subjective, facts versus perceptions, and closed versus open are all dichotomies used to distinguish between different approaches or perspectives in understanding reality.
So here is a way of structuring what “knowing“ is, based on its dichotomies with “seeing “:
3.1.Forces (versus maps).The world is something to be understood objectively vis-à-vis forces (versus seeing the world subjectively vis a vis maps). REALITY is contemplated in terms of DRIVING FORCES(3.1) OUT THERE(3.6.) for one to OBSERVE, reveal or discover. If one can only approach the world with the right state of mind and the right analytic tools, the DRIVING FORCES can be accurately accounted for. In this sense, the world is an object composed of DRIVING FORCES(3.1.), CERTAINTIES(1.), and UNCERTAINTIES(2.) that exist despite one’s ability to perceive them.
To identify the driving forces of change a combination of environmental scanning and brainstorming sessions at workshops can be made, and later interviews can all be used to identify the driving forces of change.
The six sector system employed in strategic planning and business management can be used:
Culture (cultural forces that drive change/cultural change),
Demography (demographic forces that drive change/demographic change),
Economics (economic forces that drive change/economic change),
Environment (environmental forces that drive change/environmental change),
Governance (governmental forces that drive change/governmental change) and
Technology (technological forces that drive change/technological change).
3.2.Content (versus process). My research point out that "content" represents the substantive elements or aspects of a situation, it pertains to understanding and comprehending the substantive aspects of a situation or reality.It is identified through rigorous research, analysis, and inquiry into the substantive elements of a system or situation.
3.3.Objective (versus subjective) . My research points out that objective refers to a perspective or approach that emphasizes understanding and interpreting the world .It entails acknowledging external realities independent of personal biases or opinions. Objective elements are based on empirical evidence, facts, and logical reasoning.
3.4.Positivist (versus constructivist). My research points out that positivism is an epistemological stance that emphasizes the importance of empirical evidence and scientific methods in understanding the world. It asserts that knowledge should be derived from observable facts and phenomena, and that subjective interpretations or personal biases should be minimized. Positivism focuses on objective, verifiable truths.Positivists seek to uncover universal laws or patterns that govern phenomena, relying on systematic observation and experimentation to validate their hypotheses.
3.5.Facts (versus perceptions) .My research point out that "facts" refer to objective, verifiable information derived from empirical evidence, rigorous research, and logical reasoning."Facts" provide a basis for sound analysis and decision-making."Facts" are identified through rigorous research, analysis, and inquiry into substantive elements or aspects of a situation.
3.6 Out there OUTER SPACE (versus In there “inner space “). My research point out that "out there OUTER SPACE" represents the external, objective aspects of the world that exist, the realm of factual intelligence, rational analysis, and empirical evidence. Identifying "out there OUTER SPACE" involves rigorous research, analysis, and objective observation of external phenomena.
3.7.Science (versus Art) My research point out that "science" is understood as a rational and analytical process of understanding reality objectively through empirical evidence, facts, and logical reasoning."Science" provides a structured framework for understanding reality objectively.
3.8.Facts (versus fiction). My research point out that "facts" refer to objective, verifiable information derived from empirical evidence, rigorous research, and logical reasoning. Identifying "facts" involves rigorous research, analysis, and inquiry into substantive elements or aspects of a situation.
3.9. Closed (versus Open) . My research point out that it involves a structured framework of empirical evidence, facts, and logical reasoning.
4. HOW TO "SEE" THE PREDETERMINED ELEMENTS AND UNCERTAINTIES OF THE REAL ESTATE SYSTEM
This is done by "DREAMERS" and is "ESOTERIC" in nature. It is about PERCEIVING REALITY with FOCUS ON MANAGERIAL PERCEPTION. It is about DREAMING. This is the “gentle art of re-perceiving.” It is done by a WISE MAN or SEER with PERCEPTIVE PROWESS and INTUITION. It is about VISION and thoughtful synthesis of the interconnectivity of research.
The question is how is seeing applied to the real estate system? Another question is what is the method of seeing? Seeing involves both an immediate knowledge, situated in perspective, but also a deeper gaze. One of the goals of scenario planning, as Wack explains, is to make a “sound analysis of reality”(KNOW) and “to see things as they really are” (SEE). Wack’s repertoire gives primacy to mental models, the inner landscapes that formulate perception. Here we see that knowledge is dynamic, changing and contingent upon boundaries of space, time, and perspective. There is no objective world outside of perception, or outside interpretation. Worlds are then constructed by SENSING things through a selection process that is informed by history, beliefs, specific contexts, and mental models. It is through interaction with the world that causes knowing, albeit in subjective ways.This frame is more akin to a CONSTRUCTIVIST approach as it is one that acknowledges that knowing will always be partial and thwarted by limited sight and perspective. Under the guidance of mental models, whether that guidance is righteous or erroneous, knowing is an interpretation of the world and a consequence of unique constructions, orderings, and weightings.It is a constructivist’s view of maps, perception, and interpretation. Dreaming.
Pierre wack said: It is not common to see, to see things as they really are. Usually we see with our mind. With inferences, with comparisons, with expectations, with all our past experience. To see, and I mean not to see in the narrow sense, to see with one’s eyes, to perceive totally, to see through, is a function of pure consciousness. It is a wonder of what is, because it is so. It describes it; it is a shock when you really perceive it. The word “wise man” in Sanskrit is “rishi” and “rishi” means a seer. This, by the way, is the best definition of a scenario builder I know (1993).
Pierre Wack said: It is one thing to say “One must see, simply see things the way they are, and not give oneself over to games of the mind …” It is not common to see what is there. Naturally, we “look” with our minds—with our interpretations, inferences, preconceptions, comparisons, expectations and through all our previous experience. To “see” is a function of a pure consciousness. It is an enchantment with what is that goes beyond “liking” or “disliking,” and enchantment precisely because it is like that (“that-ness,” Svamiji said)—and this has a taste of existential certainty: when I see, I am and I am with what I see …In Sanskrit, Rishi, the sage, is a seer—Paripasyanti, he who sees all around him. India has always celebrated the fact of seeing things directly as they are—not believing, imagining, speculating, but seeing. Still it is quite a different matter to be able to transmit this wisdom into personal and operational terms. Svamiji’s obligation for me to “see things” was revolutionary. Instead of econometric calculations from global statistics, “seeing” demands, firstly, the identification of the forces at work and the chain(s) of cause and effect behind the development of a market, and secondly, information about the chain that is much finer than global statistics, a ladder where significant differences appear. (Chermack, Thomas (2017-02-02T22:58:59.000). Foundations of Scenario Planning: The Story of Pierre Wack (Routledge International Studies in Business History) (English Edition) .Taylor and Francis. Edición de Kindle. )
Thinking and Seeing (January 10th, 1974 Sitting between Pierre Wack and Svamiji)
P. I would like to understand better "seeing" opposed to "thinking." Seeing suggests an immediate understanding, something like intuition. Is it only this?
S. Yes.
P. It is immediate?
S. Yes. Seeing is, so to say, complete, perfect, immediate understanding... and if understanding is not immediate, that shows there is thinking.
Meaning? There is the play of the emotion or there is the play of the past, which covers, which intervenes between you and the object.
P. So there can be a mixing of seeing and thinking?
S. That may be. But two things cannot occur at the same place... either seeing or thinking. When you think, there is no seeing...
You are to start from thinking, because thinking was originally there. It is still there. It is the cause of the past. Everything is there. So when there is thinking, there is disturbance here: positive or negative, either elation, joy or depression, dejection, conflict. . . It is tested here at once.
Here is a way of structuring what “seeing “ is based on its dichotomies with “knowing“ :
4.1.Maps (versus forces) The world is something to be understood subjectively vis-à-vis maps. My research point out that "maps" likely refers to subjective interpretations, mental models, or perspectives that individuals construct to understand and navigate reality."Maps" can be interpreted as a subjective understanding or perception of reality.Identifying "maps" involves recognizing and understanding subjective interpretations, mental models, or perspectives that individuals use to navigate and make sense of reality. This recognition often requires introspection, reflection, and an awareness of one's biases and assumptions."Maps," understood as subjective interpretations or mental models, can be used to "see" the predetermined elements and uncertainties of the real estate system by providing insight into how individuals perceive and navigate the system. By understanding the various maps or perspectives held by stakeholders, decision-makers can gain insights into the subjective certainties and uncertainties influencing the real estate environment. This understanding can inform scenario planning and strategy development by revealing diverse perspectives and potential blind spots.
4.2.Process (versus content). My research indicates that "process" refers to the systematic approach of identifying, analyzing, and synthesizing information to develop insights and strategies.
4.3.Subjective (versus objective). My research indicate that "subjective" refers to the perspective or interpretation that individuals construct based on their personal beliefs, experiences, and mental models."Subjective" understanding involves perceiving reality through mental constructs or "maps".Subjective understanding is identified by recognizing and understanding the mental models, interpretations, or perspectives that individuals use to navigate and make sense of reality. This recognition often requires introspection, reflection, and an awareness of one's biases and assumptions.By understanding the various subjective interpretations held by stakeholders, decision-makers can gain insights.
4.4.Constructivist (versus positivist). My research indicates that "constructivist" refers to an epistemological stance that acknowledges the subjective nature of knowledge and understanding. Constructivists believe that knowledge is constructed by individuals based on their perceptions, mental models, and interpretations of reality.constructivism emphasizes the subjective interpretation and perception of reality. It involves perceiving reality through mental constructs or "maps" and acknowledging the role of individual perspectives and interpretations.It involves acknowledging the role of personal beliefs, experiences, and biases in shaping understanding.Scenario planning, based on a constructivist approach, encourages decision-makers to question their inner model of reality and recognize the role of subjective interpretations in shaping understanding.
4.5.Perceptions (versus facts). My research indicates that perception is understood as a subjective understanding or interpretation of reality.Perceptions are identified by recognizing and understanding the mental models, interpretations, or perspectives that individuals use to navigate and make sense of reality.In summary, perceptions represent subjective interpretations of reality, identified through introspection and awareness of biases, and are essential for understanding and navigating complex systems such as the real estate market.
4.6.In there INNER SPACE (versus out there OUTER SPACE). My research indicates that: "In there INNER SPACE" refers to the subjective understanding or perception of reality.
4.7. Art (versus science). My research indicates that "art" can be understood as the subjective, intuitive, and perceptive aspect of understanding reality.It involves intuition, insight, and a deeper understanding of the interconnectedness of various factors and events shaping the system. In summary, "art" in the context of scenario planning and understanding the real estate system involves a subjective, intuitive, and perceptive approach to "seeing" reality,
4.8.Fictions (versus facts). My research indicates that "fictions" are subjective interpretations or mental constructs that individuals use to understand and navigate reality.
4.9.Open (versus closed). My research indicates that "open" refers to a mindset or approach that is flexible, adaptive, and receptive to new information or insights. It involves embracing uncertainty and exploring diverse perspectives to gain a deeper understanding of complex systems like the real estate market. "Open" thinking encourages curiosity, innovation. It emphasizes the importance of continuous learning, questioning assumptions, and remaining open to change in order to adapt to evolving circumstances."open" thinking is characterized by curiosity, adaptability, and a willingness to explore diverse perspectives.Open-mindedness allows decision-makers to acknowledge and embrace uncertainty as an inherent aspect of complex systems.
Luis Ernesto Dominguez Magaña
Santa Tecla
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specific, detailed instructions and examples for case clinics. The structure of the case clinic helps the group to stay focused on the case and case-giver. Video produced by edx, for the Ulab1x 2023 course and by the Presencing Institute and Otto Scharmer. We do not own the copyrights for the video. CC License by the Presencing Institute - Otto Scharmer, https://www.presencing.org/resource/Permissions CC License by the Presencing Institute, with a link back to this page: https://presencinginstitute.org/credits
A coaching circle is a group of six lab participants who meet virtually (or in person for 75 minutes, six times during a lab, to practice Theory U-based leadership skills and support each other in developing new approaches to current leadership challenges. When the group meets, participants practice the case clinic method. Video produced by edx, for the Ulab1x 2023 course and by the Presencing Institute and Otto Scharmer. We do not own the copyrights for the video. CC License by the Presencing Institute - Otto Scharmer, https://www.presencing.org/resource/Permissions CC License by the Presencing Institute, with a link back to this page: https://presencinginstitute.org/credits
Otto facilitates a guided journaling practice. Video produced by edx, for the Ulab1x 2023 course and by the Presencing Institute and Otto Scharmer. We do not own the copyrights for the video. CC License by the Presencing Institute - Otto Scharmer, https://www.presencing.org/resource/Permissions CC License by the Presencing Institute, with a link back to this page: https://presencinginstitute.org/credits Notes I made on my journal: Some things where considered appropiate in politiks. not anymore. entertainment through social media are the rule. Luis Ernesto Dominguez Magaña
Dayna Cunningham, Dean of the Tisch College of Civic Life, Tufts University,shares her experience shifting focus from structural change to social field change. Link to a video of Marthin Luther King about the Beloved community: https://youtu.be/IeCzzRY_RI8?si=D6aWXQBw_mfKzK1S Video produced by edx, for the Ulab1x 2023 course and by the Presencing Institute and Otto Scharmer. We do not own the copyrights for the video. CC License by the Presencing Institute - Otto Scharmer, https://www.presencing.org/resource/Permissions CC License by the Presencing Institute, with a link back to this page: https://presencinginstitute.org/credits
One of the core ideas of Theory U is that form follows attention. The way we pay attention influences what happens around us, and the quality of our attention depends on the inner place from where we operate. We can change the world outside by changing the inner place from which we operate. The first step in understanding the impact of attention on reality is to look at our own individual practice of listening. In this video, we introduce four levels of listening, representing four distinct places from where our listening can originate. Video produced by edx, for the Ulab1x 2023 course and by the Presencing Institute and Otto Scharmer. We do not own the copyrights for the video. CC License by the Presencing Institute - Otto Scharmer, https://www.presencing.org/resource/Permissions CC License by the Presencing Institute, with a link back to this page: https://presencinginstitute.org/credits Im I listening to the system? How am I listening to the system?
Video produced by edx, for the Ulab1x 2023 course and by the Presencing Institute and Otto Scharmer. We do not own the copyrights for the video. CC License by the Presencing Institute - Otto Scharmer, https://www.presencing.org/resource/Permissions CC License by the Presencing Institute, with a link back to this page: https://presencinginstitute.org/credits Where is the Real Estate System in El Salvador? 1)Is the Real Estate System operating from a 1.0 form of doing things? Is there a group or individuals with authority to guide things? Are there any monopolies? Is the real estate system governed by crony capitalists that control who receives permits? What is the input the real estate system receives? Which inputs drive the system? Does the system operate in an input-centric way?Is the system driven by the capital markets? Is there a group of developers or investors that have captured government dominating the real estate system? Do they controll the Ministry of Environment and Ministry of Housing , OPAMMS and local government permit deparments? 2)Is the System driven by how much you can reduce costs and the one that reduces the most costs wins? Do the ones who can operate at economies of scale control the system? Is the system driven by developers? Is the system organized around how many spaces can be produced in the less time? Is the system operating in a 2.0 form output and efficiency-centric? Is there a free market in the real estate system? Are there obstacles to get into the market and compete? How pure is this competition? 3)Is the real estate system oriented to satisfy the necesity of the space users? Is there a focus in amenities and services for space users? Do developers ask space users what they want? Are developers producing what space users want? Do developers care more on profits than providing spaces where users dont experience traffic, contamination, and have jobs available near their homes or cost efficiencies to produce?Is the
Systems change has to do not just with horizontal development of cross-stakeholder connection and collaboration, but with vertical development – moving from a 1.0 to 4.0 operating system. In this video ir is shown what the evolution of the operating system looks like across sectors, or acupuncture points. Video produced by edx, for the Ulab1x 2023 course and by the Presencing Institute and Otto Scharmer. We do not own the copyrights for the video. CC License by the Presencing Institute - Otto Scharmer, https://www.presencing.org/resource/Permissions CC License by the Presencing Institute, with a link back to this page: https://presencinginstitute.org/credits
The polycrisis that defines our world today can be thought of in terms of three divides or disconnects – the disconnect between self and nature, between self and other, and between self and self. The essence of systems thinking is about going beneath the surface to address the root causes of these divides that keep us locked into re-enacting the same old patterns Video produced by edx, for the Ulab1x 2023 course and by the Presencing Institute and Otto Scharmer. We do not own the copyrights for the video. CC License by the Presencing Institute - Otto Scharmer, https://www.presencing.org/resource/Permissions CC License by the Presencing Institute, with a link back to this page: https://presencinginstitute.org/credits
A coaching circle is a group of 5-6 u-lab participants who meet virtually or in person for 75 minutes, five to six times during u-lab (one time per person), to take part in a Theory U practice called the case clinic. Coaching circles are the single most effective action you can take in u-lab to move from concept to practice and to develop new approaches to a current leadership challenge. In this video Manish Srivastava, Senior Faculty at the Presencing Institute and Co-Director of Social Presencing Theater, joins us from Berlin to introduce coaching circles. Video produced by edx, for the Ulab1x 2023 course and by the Presencing Institute and Otto Scharmer. We do not own the copyrights for the video. CC License by the Presencing Institute - Otto Scharmer, https://www.presencing.org/resource/Permission CC License by the Presencing Institute, with a link back to this page: https://presencinginstitute.org/credits.
What is the key to a successful u-lab experience? Making it your own. In this video Otto Scharmer and Presencing Institute Research Lead, Eva Pomeroy, share some of the ways you can adapt the course to fit your situation, learning preference and context. Below the video, you will find a description of three levels of engagement available to you in u-lab. Video produced by edx, for the Ulab1x 2023 course and by the Presencing Institute and Otto Scharmer. We do not own the copyrights for the video. CC License by the Presencing Institute - Otto Scharmer, https://www.presencing.org/resource/Permissions CC License by the Presencing Institute, with a link back to this page: https://presencinginstitute.org/credits.
A unique feature of u-lab is the integration of what we call the Social Arts. In this video Arawana Hayashi, founder of Social Presencing Theater, and Kelvy Bird, founder of Generative Scribing, explain the role of the arts in learning and innovation processes. Video produced by edx, for the Ulab1x 2023 course and by the Presencing Institute and Otto Scharmer. We do not own the copyrights for the video. CC License by the Presencing Institute - Otto Scharmer, https://www.presencing.org/resource/permissionCC License by the Presencing Institute, with a link back to this page: https://presencinginstitute.org/credits.
What does it take to shift from ego system awareness to ecosystem awareness? It takes a journey. In this video Otto Scharmer outlines the journey that has been taken by individuals, teams, organizations and multi-sector initiatives around the world. Video produced by edx, for the Ulab1x 2023 course and by the Presencing Institute and Otto Scharmer. We do not own the copyrights for the video. CC License by the Presencing Institute - Otto Scharmer, https://www.presencing.org/resource/permissionCC License by the Presencing Institute, with a link back to this page: https://presencinginstitute.org/credits.
