03/03/2020
2020 Cold War Outlook
Updated: Monday Afternoon, March 2nd
Event Window: March 1st-22nd
Highlights
Windows of fun waves Tuesday AM and Wednesday AM
Better surf potential over the upcoming weekend, especially Saturday 7th
Potential for additional storm activity around late next week (12th-13th)
Forecast Outlook
While we expect windows of ‘fun’ surf for both Tuesday and Wednesday around the next frontal system the resulting southerly swell looks below the criteria to run the event. Instead, look for waist+ southerly windswell on Tuesday and waist to chest high waves early on Wednesday before the surf drops through the day with westerly winds.
We continue to monitor the potential system Friday into the weekend that Rob mentioned in the initial forecast outlook last week. We are seeing pretty good forecast model agreement with this system so confidence continues to increase that we will see a potentially solid shot (head high to overhead) of ENE/E swell fill in for Saturday and ease on Sunday. While the swell looks promising on paper at this juncture, there are some concerns regarding our local winds due to the interaction between the offshore low pressure system and a quick-moving disturbance that tracks through the Great Lakes and eventually through the area. Wooden Jetty can handle a bit more of a northerly wind component so that option is good to have in our back pocket as this overall scenario looks promising. Because of that potential, we will provide an additional forecast update on Wednesday afternoon with our latest thinking to help in your decision making process.
Beyond the weekend system some of the forecast model guidance suggests the potential for another coastal low around the second half of next week. That is pretty far out but model trends have remained rather consistent so it is something we will watch and update you on with the mid-week forecast outlook.
Next update: Wednesday afternoon, March 4th