08/02/2024
Friday Evening Tropical Update:
1. No changes to our earlier post this morning. Finally, things are proceeding as forecasted.
2. The timing of our squally weather will be Sunday morning through the evening. Track ranges from landfall around Sarasota to the Big Bend Area. Regardless of the exact track, wind and rain will be about the same. Think afternoon thunderstorm. Winds of 40ish mph with higher gusts. (Yes, IF the storm were to get stronger the winds would be higher, but let's cross that bridge IF it were to happen. Ok?)
3. Surge of 1-3 feet is possible and unfortunately, yet again, the tide is high when the storm approaches. The exact track DOES matter on this. If it stays offshore longer, the storm will get stronger and the surge could be a bit higher in Citrus and Levy counties. If "Debby to be" goes onshore sooner, the resulting surge would be lower across the entire area.
4. Expect rainfall of anywhere from 2 to 6 inches with some spots higher and some lower. That's just the nature of any tropical system that comes through Florida.
5. We will be in the NE quadrant so there is always the chance we could see a waterspout (or tornado) or 2.
6. Bottom line, this is more of a nuisance for most people. There could be some power outages...just as we often see during our thunderstorm season. Do I expect widespread issues? I don't.
7. Bottom line, nothing to freak out about. We get 40 to 50 mph winds many times in the Summer. Wind-wise, it's an afternoon thunderstorm that will last for several hours.
8. Surge is always our biggest concern with this kind of system. NHC is saying 1 to 3 foot surge in the Bay. It might be "just a tropical storm" with wind, but water can still be a big issue. The exact location and timing of landfall is the biggest factor with surge.
9. Lastly, I don't know if your flight is canceled and yes, it's going to rain at Disney. (That should cover 95% of the questions I get) We got this folks. This is good practice for what's on the way later this season. Rule #7. (Don't freak out unless I'm freaking out, we're fine) We live in Florida, this goes with the territory.