07/15/2026
TUESDAY EVENING FLOOD UPDATE - Please read
First things first, while we've had some time to dry out a bit over the last 6-8 hours, the soil is still soaked from the widespread soaking rain this morning.
**The threshold for new flash flooding is much easier to reach as a result**
Case in point: New downpours that have developed quickly north of San Antonio is already causing flash flooding with a new warning there for at least the next few hours.
These new storms are an anomaly, developing MUCH earlier than even our latest data suggests should be happening right now. If these storms keep up, and if new ones start developing in the vicinity, it could be a sign of an overall earlier start to our significant overnight flash flood threat. If they weaken or peter out, then the original timeline of early Wednesday morning flood threat would still be the expected scenario.
I've been keeping a close eye on data all afternoon and evening and one thing remains abundantly clear: The main *area* of concern for flash flooding remains the same. Areas generally west, south, southwest of Austin (especially west/northwest of San Antonio) remain under the gun for significant, potentially catastrophic flash flooding this evening and overnight.
What is less certain is just how much rain those areas will see. In my humble opinion, widespread totals up 5" will be common. There is also consensus in isolated totals exceeding 10-15", perhaps higher if we're really unlucky... But as mentioned, the threshold for new flash flooding is MUCH lower. A quick 1-2" can now cause flooding because of soaked soil. So what does another 10" on top of that mean? Longer-duration and more severe flooding in some isolated pockets, flooding will be widespread elsewhere.
As I've said from the get-go, the situation is DYNAMIC. A lot of funky stuff going on in the atmosphere with mesoscale convective vortices spinning around along with other small-scale influences tonight will keep us on our toes, but all of the pieces are in place for a potentially historic night of flash flooding in some portions of the Hill Country/southwest Texas.
Screaming it as loud as I can for the people in the back: YOU NEED TO HOLD YOURSELF ACCOUNTABLE FOR YOUR OWN SAFETY. That means knowing where you are in relation to areas that could flood, knowing where exactly you need to go to get to higher ground and what to take with you if it happens, and making sure that you have multiple ways of receiving severe weather/flood alerts as they are issued. Your phone, the TV, a weather radio, carrier pigeon dropping telegrams, all of the above.
I will be with you all morning long starting a little after midnight with frequent updates. Please stay safe!
