07/16/2026
There have now been an unprecedented TWO 1-in-1,000 year heavy rain events impacting the islands of Lake Erie in just the past three years. It’s imperative we take note before disaster strikes again.
A warmer environment and changing climate is a major and critical contributing factor to these extreme and rare weather events. A much warmer lake is the source of moisture feeding these historical and unprecedented rain events. The biblical torrent of rainfall in Kelleys Island on July 5-6, 2026 dumped 15-17.5” of rain in as little as 6 hours. This information came from both Doppler Radar estimates and numerous personal weather stations. Never before has such rainfall been recorded in Ohio.
On the morning of July 5th, the Lake Erie western basin was over 4°F above average. Buoys around the Lake Erie island and western Lake Erie registered balmy tropical water temperatures of 79-84.8°. For comparison sake only, this level of warmth in the water (81° or warmer) is sufficient for tropical cyclone formation in the ocean.
A similar unprecedented torrent of rainfall struck Put-In-Bay and South Bass Island on August 23-24, 2023 with an estimated 8-13” of rainfall. Both of these heavy rain events are considered over 1-in-1,000 year rain events. This technically is a statistical probability meaning it is only a fraction (0.1% chance) of happening on any given year. It’s now happened twice in the past three years.
The Ohio All-Time state record for 24-hour rainfall is 10.75” on August 7-8, 1995 in Shelby County Ohio. Both of these extreme rain events on Kelleys Island and South Bass Island would shatter that state record, but have yet to or may never be verified because of a lack of official NWS reporting stations. They absolutely should be investigated, studied and better understood before disaster strikes again.
