29/05/2026
SOMETHING TO FRIDAY 13TH AFTER ALL
Our fate may be written in the stars
Panic swept the world in 2004 when NASA announced that a highly dangerous asteroid would hit the Earth in 2029. Nicknamed Apophis (the "Uncreator"), it was identified heading for us with a high probability of catastrophe.
This was at a time soon after we learnt that the extinction of the dinosaurs was caused by an asteroid. The event occurred 66 million years ago on the Yucatan Peninsula and it wiped out 75% of life on Earth.
Apophis - named after the ancient adversary of the Sun God Ra in Egyptian mythology - is not going to hit us in 2029. Later calculations showed that if it passes through a very narrow slot near Earth known as the keyhole, when it returns seven years later it will smack into us on - wait for it - Friday 13 April 2036.
So there may be something to that bad-luck superstition after all.
Spoiler Alert: The probability of a worldwide asteroid catastrophe happening in 2036 is now next to nil. Apophis has been carefully tracked and is not on course for Armageddon any time soon. NASA's Dart probe is going to follow Apophis around the sun sending back data for physicists to chew on.
But the danger from space has not gone away and never will. Although Apophis is "only" 340-375 metres across, it could cause a colossal explosion. Enough to devastate a vast region and kill millions of people if it struck a densely populated area.
An impact by a 340-375 metre asteroid would release energy measured in hundreds to more than a thousand megatons of TNT, vastly exceeding the Hiroshima explosion. Johannesburg and much of Gauteng would cease to exist
Spoiler Alert 2: Would that be a bad thing?
No wonder, then, that the Vredefort asteroid, estimated at between 8 to 24km in diameter, which hit what is now South Africa some 2 billion years ago, devastated the entire planet.
Impacts are real and everlasting.
Other Near-Earth Objects (NEOs) are out there and some have our name on them. A few other notable Near-Earth Objects deserve mention:
— about 490 metres across. Current calculations give an extremely small chance of impact in the late 22nd century, particularly around 2182.
— about 1.1 kilometres across. Tiny impact probability in the year 2880, but large enough to cause global consequences.
— recently attracted attention because early calculations suggested a small future impact risk, but subsequent observations greatly reduced concern.
Impact studies are now part of mainstream geophysics. It's become ever clearer that our planet like all others is constantly bombarded and shaped by asteroids and comets. These catastrophes are part of universal normality.
One final historical irony: Apophis will make its spectacular close pass on Friday, 13 April - the very date that stirs deep fears in many. But instead of destruction, it is now expected to become one of the most closely observed asteroid fly-bys in recorded human history.
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