17/08/2026
THE REMAINING 91 β WHERE CAN THE 513,478 VOTES BE FOUND?
Now forget the 135 for a moment.
Let's concentrate entirely on the 91 constituencies remaining. And suddenly the remaining map tells us something important.
BM MUST FIND 513,479 NET VOTES
To move ahead of HH on the present two-candidate totals, BM must gain at least 513,479 more votes than HH from what remains.
Across 91 constituencies, that is an average required net gain of about 5,643 votes per constituency.
Not an average victory of 5,643 votes.
A NET gain.
That distinction is everything.
Suppose BM wins one outstanding constituency by 15,000 votes but HH wins another by 20,000.
BM hasn't reduced the national deficit.
He has actually fallen another 5,000 votes behind.
AND LOOK WHERE MOST OF THE 91 ARE
Copperbelt, Western, Central and North-Western alone have:
20 + 15 + 11 + 11 = 57 constituencies.
That is 62.6% of everything still outstanding.
So nearly two-thirds of the remaining constituency map sits in just four provinces.
This is why Copperbelt becomes particularly fascinating.
Only 9 of its 29 constituencies are reflected in the 135. There are still 20 Copperbelt constituencies outstanding , more than one-fifth of everything remaining nationally.
Western still has 15.
North-Western still has 11.
Central still has 11.
These four areas could heavily influence whether the current 513,478 gap contracts or expands.
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ARE ALMOST SPENT
This is another critical piece of the mathematics.
Eastern has only 4 of 29 constituencies remaining.
Southern has only 5 of 29 remaining.
Muchinga has only 2 of 14 remaining.
So some of the provinces from which we have already seen very large margins have relatively little territory left to contribute.
That shifts the centre of gravity of the count.
THE BIG QUESTION
The question for BM is therefore no longer:
Can he win many of the remaining 91?
It is:
Can he extract a net 513,479-vote advantage from those 91 while HH is s