03/04/2026
I haven't written in awhile. My last trip to Cuba was a couple of years ago, and was just for family. I have moved on to other important work, but things are quickly changing in Cuba and I feel the obligation to share what's happening on the ground from the people I'm still in contact with.
As I write this, the U.S. appears to be mobilizing military assets on a major scale toward Germany and then on to the Middle East. There are also major things happening in Cuba, albeit at a smaller and less violent scale - for now.
A few hours ago an explosion at a power station in Cienfuegos knocked central and western Cuba off the grid. Cell antennas have backup batteries, but once those run down the island will likely go dark again and information will get scarce, so I want to share this now, while I still have a connection to my friends in Cuba.
The U.S. has choked off Cuba’s oil supply after taking out the government of Venezuela, historically Cuba’s most reliable source. U.S. warships are blocking almost all access to oil shipments that other governments are trying to send as aid. With no fuel for garbage service, mountains of trash have been piling up on street corners and people have started burning it, filling neighborhoods with toxic smoke. THis comes after months of very limited electricity, with blackouts that often last days.
Cubans are openly disparaging the government in ways I have never seen before. A meme making the rounds shows Díaz-Canel photoshopped as Ayatollah Khomeini with the caption “¿y este Ayatola pa’ cuándo?” - basically, “when are you taking out this one?” A few years ago no one would have dared speak out publicly about the government. Now people are openly talking about openness to asasination.
A kid is in prison awaiting trial for making a Facebook Live video asking Trump to “do a Maduro” on the Cuban president, but that isn't stopping people from small acts of violence and rebellion.
People are making lists of the police who have historically been the most oppressive. There have been instances of people attacking police and stealing their weapons. Police and first responders are quitting in large numbers. They’re making the equivalent of about $15 a month, and it isn't worth it, especially for a system that most no longer believe in.
There is no simple resolution to this. Cuba never really stopped fighting the revolution of the 1960s. Even though sentiment has soured in the cities, generations across the country were raised on the idea that they are the protectors of that struggle and must resist outside intervention at all costs. That sentiment runs the deepest in the distant provinces, where geurilla warfare continued for years after the triumph of the revolution. Unless the current system survives at least symbolically, the island will see years of instability or insurgency.
Cubans don’t want violence. They want this resolved quickly.
For those who have traveled with me to Cuba over the years, all of our friends there are currently safe. Many of them have already left the island in the past few years as conditions steadily worsened.
The Cuban system was clearly broken, but the island was also liberalizing economically when Raul was in power. People were beginning to prosper (admittedly, mostly people working in tourism, but there were also a lot of civic projects happening). The current U.S. strategy is to squeeze the system until people revolt. It imposes suffering on an entire population and runs directly against international law. It may force political change, but the cost is being paid by ordinary Cubans.
I just want there to be peace, and for the Cuban people to be able to live with the basic human liberties that allow them to pursue happiness. Let them have food on their table and electricity in their homes. Let them have peace.
